Predictable isn't good enough. Predictable is a reason for a government regulation. Without that, you need quantifiable. What is the probability of a polar v

Predictable isn't good enough. Predictable is a reason for a government regulation. Without that, you need quantifiable. What is the probability of a polar vortex this year? (P) How many hours of high prices would that cause? (H) What will the price be during those hours ? (Pr) What is the probability that our grid uplink will go down and cut us off? (Pd) So, on the profit side: P x H x Pr x (1-Pd) Liability: What is the probability that our failure to winterize will cause a blackout? (Pb) How much damage will that cause ? (D) How much of it is our legal responsibility? (L) Pb x D x L Now: how much will winterizing cost? C The big question: C ?>? Pb x D x L + P x H x Pr x (1-Pd) Complicating factors: in Texas, L is 0. For everyone. And P,H,Pr, and Pd are all non-zero, non-negligible, but not quantifiable.