6 ms·
You forget: once you roll three 6s in a row, you're dead, and you don't roll any more. Your expected calculation assumes that people keep rolling after they get
by wizzwizz4 5y ago
You forget: once you roll three 6s in a row, you're dead, and you don't roll any more. Your expected calculation assumes that people keep rolling after they get 666.
Though I'm not sure where they got their figure from, because there isn't an “expected time to live”; there's a 90% probability to live time, a 5% probability to live time…
- Someone 5y agoThere’s a difference between expected value of number of days you’ll survive and the number of days a given fraction of the subjects will survive, but I don’t see either supporting the claim “If you do it every day, you have about 15 months to live”. (215/216)^450 ≈ 0.124 , so about one in eight will survive for 15 months or more. The “5% probability to live” time is around day 645 (about 1¾ years): (215/216)^645 ≈ 0.0501 the “half will survive at least for” point is around 5 months: (215/216)^149 ≈ 0.501