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> Stuff happens in politics. Things change. "FBI Director going rogue the week before the election" isn't something you could factor into a prediction because
by zimpenfish 5y ago
> Stuff happens in politics. Things change.
"FBI Director going rogue the week before the election" isn't something you could factor into a prediction because it just hadn't ever happened before. It'd be like trying to factor in "What if an asteroid hits Kansas the week before?"
- chmod600 5y agoBy itself, that's unlikely. But the point of black swans is not that a particular thing will happen, but that there are zillions of low-probability events and they add up to a high probability.