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> The only problem is: he now provides literally no value. He’s excluded by fiat the possibility of ever being useful in any way. He could be losslessly replace

> The only problem is: he now provides literally no value. He’s excluded by fiat the possibility of ever being useful in any way. He could be losslessly replaced by a rock with the words “THERE ARE NO ROBBERS” on it. Not true. His value is in being there. He's not there to stop robbers, but rather to stop squatters or mischief makers who are looking for something to do (in which case there will be a lot more than just some odd noise). Nobody in a first world country is going to rob a pillow mart. > Her heuristic is right 99.9% of the time, but she provides literally no value. There is no point to her existence. She could be profitably replaced with a rock saying “IT’S NOTHING, TAKE TWO ASPIRIN AND WAIT FOR IT TO GO AWAY”. Also not true. If there's a real problem, it won't go away and the patient will return, either with no improvement, or a worsening of symptoms. > It cannot be denied that the employees he hires are very good. But when he dies, the coroner discovers that his head has a rock saying “HIRE PEOPLE FROM GOOD COLLEGES WITH LOTS OF EXPERIENCE” where his brain should be. But he hires good people for his company. So regardless of the soundness of his methods, he is providing value to that company. Followed by a bunch more contrived examples and downright black swan events. Bottom line: Yeah, they're using heuristics that will sometimes be wrong, but life itself is about compromises. There's no such thing as perfect information, so we use heuristics out of necessity. Worrying about the unlikely scenario is a recipe for paralysis.

xboxnolifes 5y ago
> > Her heuristic is right 99.9% of the time, but she provides literally no value. There is no point to her existence. She could be profitably replaced with a rock saying “IT’S NOTHING, TAKE TWO ASPIRIN AND WAIT FOR IT TO GO AWAY”. > Also not true. If there's a real problem, it won't go away and the patient will return, either with no improvement, or a worsening of symptoms. You could still replace the first visit with a rock or automated response. > > It cannot be denied that the employees he hires are very good. But when he dies, the coroner discovers that his head has a rock saying “HIRE PEOPLE FROM GOOD COLLEGES WITH LOTS OF EXPERIENCE” where his brain should be. > But he hires good people for his company. So regardless of the soundness of his methods, he is providing value to that company. He didn't provide any more value than a rock without a salary though.
- kstenerud 5y ago
  > You could still replace the first visit with a rock or automated response. Not really, because the doctor would have to receive a first visit before a second visit, and would evaluate how to deal with each one. This is an oversimplification and it doesn't work. > He didn't provide any more value than a rock without a salary though. He hired people. Rocks cannot hire people. So he absolutely did provide more value than a rock. In fact, a college degree is a pretty decent heuristic all around. It'll miss a lot of good candidates, but overall the candidates who pass his filter will be mostly sound (as was mentioned in the example). The overarching problem is that these are oversimplified examples with oversimplified explanations to support his oversimplified conclusion. Real life doesn't work that way. Real life is why we need heuristics in the first place.

xboxnolifes 5y ago

> > Her heuristic is right 99.9% of the time, but she provides literally no value. There is no point to her existence. She could be profitably replaced with a rock saying “IT’S NOTHING, TAKE TWO ASPIRIN AND WAIT FOR IT TO GO AWAY”. > Also not true. If there's a real problem, it won't go away and the patient will return, either with no improvement, or a worsening of symptoms. You could still replace the first visit with a rock or automated response. > > It cannot be denied that the employees he hires are very good. But when he dies, the coroner discovers that his head has a rock saying “HIRE PEOPLE FROM GOOD COLLEGES WITH LOTS OF EXPERIENCE” where his brain should be. > But he hires good people for his company. So regardless of the soundness of his methods, he is providing value to that company. He didn't provide any more value than a rock without a salary though.

kstenerud 5y ago
> You could still replace the first visit with a rock or automated response. Not really, because the doctor would have to receive a first visit before a second visit, and would evaluate how to deal with each one. This is an oversimplification and it doesn't work. > He didn't provide any more value than a rock without a salary though. He hired people. Rocks cannot hire people. So he absolutely did provide more value than a rock. In fact, a college degree is a pretty decent heuristic all around. It'll miss a lot of good candidates, but overall the candidates who pass his filter will be mostly sound (as was mentioned in the example). The overarching problem is that these are oversimplified examples with oversimplified explanations to support his oversimplified conclusion. Real life doesn't work that way. Real life is why we need heuristics in the first place.