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AutoPredict is a tool to help predict how long a car in the UK will last given its MOT history. In the UK every car more than three years old must take an annu
by MattThorne 5y ago
AutoPredict is a tool to help predict how long a car in the UK will last given its MOT history.
In the UK every car more than three years old must take an annual MOT test to make sure it meets legally required safety standards. The results of these tests contain information about the condition of the car and details such as its current mileage, engine size, and fuel type. These results are also openly available for anyone to see, for any car, past and present.
I collected the MOT histories of more than 16 million cars (more than 100 million tests) which have already reached the end of their life. I then trained an ML model using a random forest to predict how much longer a car will last given its current MOT history. Just enter a valid UK number plate and get a prediction back, along with statistics about the make and model of the car. Feel free to use the random number plate button to get a prediction for a random car if you don’t know a valid UK number plate.
The model currently gets within a year of a car's actual end of life for 51% of cars.
Try it out and let me know what you think.
- d13 5y agoIt predicted my 2006 Mini One would die in 6 months. No way on Earth, she’s in perfect health, the most reliable car I’ve ever had and has another good 10 years in her at least.
- MattThorne 5y agoYeah the model is definitely not perfect yet, and if anything it is slightly pessimistic, particularly with older cars. I am planning to address this by doing more fined grained analysis on the MOT history to see if there is anything more we can draw out to identify a car in good health.