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> for a lifelong hunter, 1:5000 are pretty bad odds There’s a term for this which I’m unable to recall and it’s not easy to Google. Would greatly appreciate if
by vishnugupta 5y ago
> for a lifelong hunter, 1:5000 are pretty bad odds
There’s a term for this which I’m unable to recall and it’s not easy to Google. Would greatly appreciate if someone could help me out here!!
- azinman2 5y agoEffectively it’s integrating risk over time, but that’s probably not what you’re thinking of.
- animesh 5y agoIs it Micromort? I just learned about this from a comment above. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30267553 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30267553
- romwell 5y agoCompound interest? Exponential decay? Both apply here. Probability of surviving a night under a tree is (1-1/5000). 15 years of hunting is roughly 5000 nights. The chances of never getting hit by a tree over that period are (1-1/5000) for each night, which compounds to (1-1/5000)^5000 ≈ 1/e ≈ 1/2.7 < 0.4 That's to say, the odds are 3:2 (at least!) that you'd get killed by a tree in 15 years. Make it at least 5:1 for 30 years. That's to say, at least 5 out of 6 hunters who sleep under a tree every day wouldn't survive doing it for 30 years. And that, children, is why credit cards are a scary thing.
- vmurthy 5y agoErgodicity? E.g. A single player playing Russian roulette for a 100 times v/s 100 players playing it once are very different risks for the single player :)
- vishnugupta 5y agoThat's it, thank you!