I suspect some combination of 4 and 5. Seeing how the satellites were taken down not by the storm itself but the atmosphere slightly expanding to make the low-

I suspect some combination of 4 and 5. Seeing how the satellites were taken down not by the storm itself but the atmosphere slightly expanding to make the low-orbit to high-orbit move physically impossible, I wonder if this is something that hadn’t been encountered before, or is a known phenomenon but with unknown consequences. Known phenomenon with unknown consequences tends to be the kind of stuff SpaceX likes to hurl headfirst into to see what breaks.