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> means it would have cost about $26B in China[1] at $20M/km, and it would have already been built. CAHSR budget costs are quoted in year-of-expenditure (YoE)
by wahern 5y ago
> means it would have cost about $26B in China[1] at $20M/km, and it would have already been built.
CAHSR budget costs are quoted in year-of-expenditure (YoE) dollars, assuming 3% yearly inflation. The $105 billion figure is for phase 1, which is scheduled for completion in 2040. Some of the most costly portions, such as crossing the mountains and building through developed areas, are scheduled for after 2030. So a sizable portion of that $105 billion figure is simply an artifact of monetary inflation.
IOW, a large part of the cost increase is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we were to simply commit and build things out as quickly as possible--as China does--a large part of it could be avoided. OTOH, that comes with its own problems. And of course many people assume the whole thing is hopelessly beset with corruption, so the project is damned if it does, damned if it doesn't.
One glimmer of hope: according to the report it seems that their reforms (including changes in leadership) at streamlining right-of-way acquisition have seen some success:
> The results of these changes have been outstanding. Parcel acquisitions are being completed on a steadier pace each month. The division is now delivering parcels ahead of the revised schedule. As of this writing, 2,067 parcels have been delivered to the construction contractors. For the frst time in the program’s history, we have met the 90% threshold for number of parcels delivered versus total needed.
Also, environmental review for most of the phase 1 route, SF to LA, should be completed this year:
> Today, we have environmentally cleared approximately 300 miles, and by July 2022 the Authority is intending to have cleared some 430 miles of the 500-mile Phase 1 system. Achieving these milestones is an essential step in the Authority’s strategy to advance the entire statewide program and be competitive for new federal funding opportunities, further described below.