So, isn't this problem basically the mirror image of insurance? You pay for insurance in a normal year, and every once in a while you get a big payout. The en

So, isn't this problem basically the mirror image of insurance? You pay for insurance in a normal year, and every once in a while you get a big payout. The energy companies need to have an incentive to winterize for a once/decade or less event. So, if they sell (i.e. are paid in a normal year) severe winter insurance, and the buyer gets half their windfall profits in a year when there is a shortage, and there is an informed (authorized to audit winterization efforts) buyer, then there is a market incentive. Much simpler to just mandate that you have capacity available (and inspect and penalize if you aren't winterized), but that will essentially put a cap on the amount of solar, wind, and natgas energy production (until/unless you get much, much bigger battery capacity).