4 ms·

Officials: LA-SF high-speed rail cost will increase to $105B

19 points by ren_engineer 5y ago

thehappypm 5y ago
These two cities have a combined metro population in the realm of ~30M. At $100,000M this will cost ~$30,000 per person. That’s enough money to buy every man, woman, and child hundreds of flights.
- DarmokJalad1701 5y ago
  Wouldn't that be ~$3000 ? Where's the extra zero coming from?
  - thehappypm 5y ago
    Stupidity
magigift 5y ago
So why do it. how about instead we build fleets of autonomous buses and give them special lanes. Just don’t keep throwing money at this
- chaostheory 5y ago
  Corruption
- phendrenad2 5y ago
  We don't even need autonomous vehicles, the route from LA to SF is mostly only 2 lanes. Add 2 more lanes and raise the speed limits.
olliej 5y ago
I'd love to know a breakdown of how much of this money is profit to layer upon layer of contractors.
ecshafer 5y ago
The amount of money that goes to graft and consultants and "assessments" on these projects is insane. Even when you account for higher land and labor prices it shouldn't be this much. US has eminent domain, US has domestic technology, there's just no reason that its $105B when China would have built 10x this much rail in the 15 years since prop 1a was passed for that cost. 1300 km for the proposed final length, means it would have cost about $26B in China[1] at $20M/km, and it would have already been built. [1]https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/07/10/cost-of-high-speed-rail-in-china-one-third-lower-than-in-other-countries https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/07/10/c...
- ren_engineer 5y ago
  >The increases are partly due to commitments aimed at minimizing community disruption, such as distancing the train from the Cesar E. Chavez National Monument in the Central Valley and tunneling tracks near the Burbank airport, project officials said that's pretty much the difference right there. China would go straight through the neighborhood and force people to move. Plus they wouldn't take years to do potential environmental impact studies
  - m463 5y ago
    Eminent domain in the US can remove stuff. But I can't figure out how things actually work in china. It seems they have some people fighting back - do a web search for "chinese nail house" and you'll see some interesting houses existing amidst huge infrastructure projects
- wahern 5y ago
  > means it would have cost about $26B in China[1] at $20M/km, and it would have already been built. CAHSR budget costs are quoted in year-of-expenditure (YoE) dollars, assuming 3% yearly inflation. The $105 billion figure is for phase 1, which is scheduled for completion in 2040. Some of the most costly portions, such as crossing the mountains and building through developed areas, are scheduled for after 2030. So a sizable portion of that $105 billion figure is simply an artifact of monetary inflation. IOW, a large part of the cost increase is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we were to simply commit and build things out as quickly as possible--as China does--a large part of it could be avoided. OTOH, that comes with its own problems. And of course many people assume the whole thing is hopelessly beset with corruption, so the project is damned if it does, damned if it doesn't. One glimmer of hope: according to the report it seems that their reforms (including changes in leadership) at streamlining right-of-way acquisition have seen some success: > The results of these changes have been outstanding. Parcel acquisitions are being completed on a steadier pace each month. The division is now delivering parcels ahead of the revised schedule. As of this writing, 2,067 parcels have been delivered to the construction contractors. For the frst time in the program’s history, we have met the 90% threshold for number of parcels delivered versus total needed. Also, environmental review for most of the phase 1 route, SF to LA, should be completed this year: > Today, we have environmentally cleared approximately 300 miles, and by July 2022 the Authority is intending to have cleared some 430 miles of the 500-mile Phase 1 system. Achieving these milestones is an essential step in the Authority’s strategy to advance the entire statewide program and be competitive for new federal funding opportunities, further described below.
exabrial 5y ago
This project needs to end. Millions have been spent, nothing has been built, and it's all somehow been funneled into pockets of people that are friends with the Pelosis.
- Gibbon1 5y ago
  > nothing has been built There is the Fresno trench. https://goo.gl/maps/5WGQ4xL3JbFEUn7z8 https://goo.gl/maps/5WGQ4xL3JbFEUn7z8 San Joaquin River Viaduct & Pergola https://goo.gl/maps/n6abmFNpaKsgCz1K8 https://goo.gl/maps/n6abmFNpaKsgCz1K8 Avenue 8 Overpass, you can drive on it. https://goo.gl/maps/DjMrzjUDjWEM5uJe8 https://goo.gl/maps/DjMrzjUDjWEM5uJe8 Some sort of drainage ditch overpasses? https://goo.gl/maps/b72P1EJ7yuDYZWmg7 https://goo.gl/maps/b72P1EJ7yuDYZWmg7 https://goo.gl/maps/uK2YaCe58M9iJQB3A https://goo.gl/maps/uK2YaCe58M9iJQB3A Avenue 12 Grade Separation https://goo.gl/maps/ztZQheYPnVhkFSWf8 https://goo.gl/maps/ztZQheYPnVhkFSWf8 Fresno River Viaduct https://goo.gl/maps/UzzLz7sXqfx7saq2A https://goo.gl/maps/UzzLz7sXqfx7saq2A Road 27 Grade Separation https://goo.gl/maps/ePVwuve6wKiikUwJA https://goo.gl/maps/ePVwuve6wKiikUwJA South Avenue Grade Separation, before https://goo.gl/maps/DuLS1rT1HBQtLcCx6 https://goo.gl/maps/DuLS1rT1HBQtLcCx6 South Avenue Grade Separation, after https://goo.gl/maps/kw8ugCY2h75htiYQ8 https://goo.gl/maps/kw8ugCY2h75htiYQ8 Conejo Viaduct https://www.buildhsr.com/gallery/photos/_2021-10-28_conejo_drone_04_xl.jpg https://www.buildhsr.com/gallery/photos/_2021-10-28_conejo_d... State Route 43 Tied Arch Bridge https://goo.gl/maps/5ZmoACLW3n6mG8Y3A https://goo.gl/maps/5ZmoACLW3n6mG8Y3A Wide Shot https://goo.gl/maps/efgyXHeUprddCjBU9 https://goo.gl/maps/efgyXHeUprddCjBU9
sundbry 5y ago
This project is such a joke. What an incompetent state we have.
AtlasBarfed 5y ago
Monora..... Er, Hyperloop! I second the "dedicated road lane with busses". Well, that probably won't be 180mph or whatever. The US idea of "high speed" rail is underwhelming anyway.
_tom_ 5y ago
This project will bankrupt the state, if it continues. We have lost the ability to control costs on major infrastructure projects. The only question on the cost is how many time the original cost it will be.
- _tom_ 5y ago
  Here is a timeline of cost escalations on the project. https://www.enotrans.org/article/timeline-california-high-speed-rail-cost-estimates/ https://www.enotrans.org/article/timeline-california-high-sp... And we are clearly not near done with the escalations.

19 points by ren_engineer 5y ago

These two cities have a combined metro population in the realm of ~30M. At $100,000M this will cost ~$30,000 per person. That’s enough money to buy every man, woman, and child hundreds of flights.

DarmokJalad1701 5y ago
Wouldn't that be ~$3000 ? Where's the extra zero coming from?
- thehappypm 5y ago
  Stupidity

magigift 5y ago

So why do it. how about instead we build fleets of autonomous buses and give them special lanes. Just don’t keep throwing money at this

chaostheory 5y ago
Corruption
phendrenad2 5y ago
We don't even need autonomous vehicles, the route from LA to SF is mostly only 2 lanes. Add 2 more lanes and raise the speed limits.

olliej 5y ago

I'd love to know a breakdown of how much of this money is profit to layer upon layer of contractors.

ecshafer 5y ago

The amount of money that goes to graft and consultants and "assessments" on these projects is insane. Even when you account for higher land and labor prices it shouldn't be this much. US has eminent domain, US has domestic technology, there's just no reason that its $105B when China would have built 10x this much rail in the 15 years since prop 1a was passed for that cost. 1300 km for the proposed final length, means it would have cost about $26B in China[1] at $20M/km, and it would have already been built. [1]https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/07/10/cost-of-high-speed-rail-in-china-one-third-lower-than-in-other-countries https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/07/10/c...

ren_engineer 5y ago
>The increases are partly due to commitments aimed at minimizing community disruption, such as distancing the train from the Cesar E. Chavez National Monument in the Central Valley and tunneling tracks near the Burbank airport, project officials said that's pretty much the difference right there. China would go straight through the neighborhood and force people to move. Plus they wouldn't take years to do potential environmental impact studies
- m463 5y ago
  Eminent domain in the US can remove stuff. But I can't figure out how things actually work in china. It seems they have some people fighting back - do a web search for "chinese nail house" and you'll see some interesting houses existing amidst huge infrastructure projects
wahern 5y ago
> means it would have cost about $26B in China[1] at $20M/km, and it would have already been built. CAHSR budget costs are quoted in year-of-expenditure (YoE) dollars, assuming 3% yearly inflation. The $105 billion figure is for phase 1, which is scheduled for completion in 2040. Some of the most costly portions, such as crossing the mountains and building through developed areas, are scheduled for after 2030. So a sizable portion of that $105 billion figure is simply an artifact of monetary inflation. IOW, a large part of the cost increase is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we were to simply commit and build things out as quickly as possible--as China does--a large part of it could be avoided. OTOH, that comes with its own problems. And of course many people assume the whole thing is hopelessly beset with corruption, so the project is damned if it does, damned if it doesn't. One glimmer of hope: according to the report it seems that their reforms (including changes in leadership) at streamlining right-of-way acquisition have seen some success: > The results of these changes have been outstanding. Parcel acquisitions are being completed on a steadier pace each month. The division is now delivering parcels ahead of the revised schedule. As of this writing, 2,067 parcels have been delivered to the construction contractors. For the frst time in the program’s history, we have met the 90% threshold for number of parcels delivered versus total needed. Also, environmental review for most of the phase 1 route, SF to LA, should be completed this year: > Today, we have environmentally cleared approximately 300 miles, and by July 2022 the Authority is intending to have cleared some 430 miles of the 500-mile Phase 1 system. Achieving these milestones is an essential step in the Authority’s strategy to advance the entire statewide program and be competitive for new federal funding opportunities, further described below.

exabrial 5y ago

This project needs to end. Millions have been spent, nothing has been built, and it's all somehow been funneled into pockets of people that are friends with the Pelosis.

Gibbon1 5y ago
> nothing has been built There is the Fresno trench. https://goo.gl/maps/5WGQ4xL3JbFEUn7z8 https://goo.gl/maps/5WGQ4xL3JbFEUn7z8 San Joaquin River Viaduct & Pergola https://goo.gl/maps/n6abmFNpaKsgCz1K8 https://goo.gl/maps/n6abmFNpaKsgCz1K8 Avenue 8 Overpass, you can drive on it. https://goo.gl/maps/DjMrzjUDjWEM5uJe8 https://goo.gl/maps/DjMrzjUDjWEM5uJe8 Some sort of drainage ditch overpasses? https://goo.gl/maps/b72P1EJ7yuDYZWmg7 https://goo.gl/maps/b72P1EJ7yuDYZWmg7 https://goo.gl/maps/uK2YaCe58M9iJQB3A https://goo.gl/maps/uK2YaCe58M9iJQB3A Avenue 12 Grade Separation https://goo.gl/maps/ztZQheYPnVhkFSWf8 https://goo.gl/maps/ztZQheYPnVhkFSWf8 Fresno River Viaduct https://goo.gl/maps/UzzLz7sXqfx7saq2A https://goo.gl/maps/UzzLz7sXqfx7saq2A Road 27 Grade Separation https://goo.gl/maps/ePVwuve6wKiikUwJA https://goo.gl/maps/ePVwuve6wKiikUwJA South Avenue Grade Separation, before https://goo.gl/maps/DuLS1rT1HBQtLcCx6 https://goo.gl/maps/DuLS1rT1HBQtLcCx6 South Avenue Grade Separation, after https://goo.gl/maps/kw8ugCY2h75htiYQ8 https://goo.gl/maps/kw8ugCY2h75htiYQ8 Conejo Viaduct https://www.buildhsr.com/gallery/photos/_2021-10-28_conejo_drone_04_xl.jpg https://www.buildhsr.com/gallery/photos/_2021-10-28_conejo_d... State Route 43 Tied Arch Bridge https://goo.gl/maps/5ZmoACLW3n6mG8Y3A https://goo.gl/maps/5ZmoACLW3n6mG8Y3A Wide Shot https://goo.gl/maps/efgyXHeUprddCjBU9 https://goo.gl/maps/efgyXHeUprddCjBU9

sundbry 5y ago

This project is such a joke. What an incompetent state we have.

AtlasBarfed 5y ago

Monora..... Er, Hyperloop! I second the "dedicated road lane with busses". Well, that probably won't be 180mph or whatever. The US idea of "high speed" rail is underwhelming anyway.

_tom_ 5y ago

This project will bankrupt the state, if it continues. We have lost the ability to control costs on major infrastructure projects. The only question on the cost is how many time the original cost it will be.

_tom_ 5y ago
Here is a timeline of cost escalations on the project. https://www.enotrans.org/article/timeline-california-high-speed-rail-cost-estimates/ https://www.enotrans.org/article/timeline-california-high-sp... And we are clearly not near done with the escalations.