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It's an old cliché but the market can stay irrational longer than individuals can stay solvent. Insisting on investing in accordance with fundamentals instead o

It's an old cliché but the market can stay irrational longer than individuals can stay solvent. Insisting on investing in accordance with fundamentals instead of riding the wave of irrationality could be a losing strategy this year, next year, even for a decade. And some rational investors will get burned. But for investors attempting to ride the wave of irrationality, betting on pictures of apes and shitcoins, some will also get burned. I just can't see our current situation perpetuating forever - it amounts to unregulated gambling and stocks having 95% of their value associated with "some other mug will pay even more for it later" rather than "the company will distribute some profits". An economy will not prosper if capital ends up randomly allocated. So rationality will come back, but I don't think any individual investor can bet on when.

uejfiweun 5y ago
It's an interesting time, because for the vast majority of the population, people actually WANT a situation where "capital ends up randomly allocated" - it's because most people have very few prospects in life, unfortunately. If you don't believe you have any chance of improving your status, why the hell not bet a bunch of money on bored apes and GME? As long as people continue to throw money at these things, the madness will continue. Even if the vast majority of them are scams, they are wrapped in such pervasive marketing that I'm not sure exactly how to convince people that this stuff is bullshit.
- iamthemonster 5y ago
  It's interesting psychologically. I could go and bet my whole life savings on red on the roulette wheel, but the odds are completely explicit and I can at least trust the casino not to bend the truth on how roulette works. But my family and friends would think I'm an idiot for making such a reckless bet. But if I go down a rabbit hole on social media with thousands of users creating a convincing and self-reinforcing narrative that Fartcoins are going to the moon, then I can spend my life savings on Fartcoins and convince myself it's a sound investment. Who is at fault here? Who do you regulate to stop people losing their life savings?
  - ostenning 5y ago
    I think its becoming increasingly common knowledge that most of crypto is just a giant “decentralised” casino. People are getting burnt all the time, word spreads and i don't believe retail will keep pumping money into it
    - hackerfromthefu 5y ago
      But from what I've seen the news regularly reports sensational individual stories of wins, I've never seen an article saying this person tried crypto and it didn't go anywhere. There are reports of hacks, lost wallets etc but that is different.

uejfiweun 5y ago

It's an interesting time, because for the vast majority of the population, people actually WANT a situation where "capital ends up randomly allocated" - it's because most people have very few prospects in life, unfortunately. If you don't believe you have any chance of improving your status, why the hell not bet a bunch of money on bored apes and GME? As long as people continue to throw money at these things, the madness will continue. Even if the vast majority of them are scams, they are wrapped in such pervasive marketing that I'm not sure exactly how to convince people that this stuff is bullshit.

iamthemonster 5y ago
It's interesting psychologically. I could go and bet my whole life savings on red on the roulette wheel, but the odds are completely explicit and I can at least trust the casino not to bend the truth on how roulette works. But my family and friends would think I'm an idiot for making such a reckless bet. But if I go down a rabbit hole on social media with thousands of users creating a convincing and self-reinforcing narrative that Fartcoins are going to the moon, then I can spend my life savings on Fartcoins and convince myself it's a sound investment. Who is at fault here? Who do you regulate to stop people losing their life savings?
- ostenning 5y ago
  I think its becoming increasingly common knowledge that most of crypto is just a giant “decentralised” casino. People are getting burnt all the time, word spreads and i don't believe retail will keep pumping money into it
  - hackerfromthefu 5y ago
    But from what I've seen the news regularly reports sensational individual stories of wins, I've never seen an article saying this person tried crypto and it didn't go anywhere. There are reports of hacks, lost wallets etc but that is different.