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> If you have a big edge and payoff is unlikely Why would the payoff be unlikely if you have a big edge?
by SkyMarshal 5y ago
> If you have a big edge and payoff is unlikely
Why would the payoff be unlikely if you have a big edge?
- CobrastanJorji 5y agoSay there's a horse race. Paul Revere is listed as having 500:1 odds of victory. You, however, know that because the weather is clear, he actually has a 5% chance to win. It's a great idea to bet on Paul Revere, but you're still most likely going to lose your money.
- danielmarkbruce 5y agoExactly. And common sense tells you a) you want to make the bet, but b) that you don't want to bet 50% of your bankroll on this. Maybe 5% makes sense.