3 ms·

I ended up like this by simple reducing my win wager to $10 and doubling my loss wager every time I lost. https://i.imgur.com/QUbOopz.jpg https://i.imgur.com/Q

• altcognito 5y ago
  I went with betting half my assets every time, and for whatever reason, the first go around I managed to cash out the first time at 7 flips. (I did better than 79% of folks) I was so spooked I ran the simulation again, this time just maxing out. After a couple dozen tries I cashed out at 5 attempts. I still only did better than 79% of participants in that study. (I always went with 60% no matter what, in both extreme cases I never lost)
• kqr 5y ago
  For the first 50 throws, your Martingale-like strategy actually performs fairly competitively with Kelly – if we ignore the very serious consequence that it can lead to complete ruin. Kelly is red, and your system is black in this plot: https://i.xkqr.org/kelly-vs-martingale-50.png https://i.xkqr.org/kelly-vs-martingale-50.png Of course, given a longer opportunity to invest, Kelly wins every time by growing exponentially: https://i.xkqr.org/kelly-vs-martingale-100.png https://i.xkqr.org/kelly-vs-martingale-100.png