You can’t over one poll. It’s really consistency that you’re looking for over many, many polls. The worst part of figuring out the trustworthiness of a source

You can’t over one poll. It’s really consistency that you’re looking for over many, many polls. The worst part of figuring out the trustworthiness of a source is putting in the time and effort to comb over all of its output and comparing it to reality, an effort that can take a long time. Which lends me to ask: how can you say that you trust 538 if you also say there is only one data point? Because there shouldn’t be: 538 made big news during the election of 2008. 538 has been around since 2008 so you should have a lot of polling predictions to comb over. I actually don’t have an opinion of 538 as I haven’t put in that work.