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Wasn't this the promise of 'prediction markets'? https://www.predictit.org https://www.predictit.org (you can read promise as 'value prop' too, I don't know m
by wsinks 5y ago
Wasn't this the promise of 'prediction markets'?
https://www.predictit.org https://www.predictit.org
(you can read promise as 'value prop' too, I don't know much about these, just that they exist and are a recent creation)
- cosmojg 5y agoThere are better prediction markets out there now with more markets on more things. See, for example: https://kalshi.com/ https://kalshi.com/ (if you're in the US) https://polymarket.com/ https://polymarket.com/ (if you're elsewhere) Also, if you just want to get your feet wet, this one utilizes a system of reputation rather than money: https://www.metaculus.com/ https://www.metaculus.com/
- thephyber 5y agoPredictIt has two large limitations it created to appease the SEC: a max $USD per player per market and a max number of players per market. Markets need a much less restrictive environment to be liquid enough to have accurate predictions. Also, the granularity of bets is in 1/100 units and there is a huge market tax on withdrawing funds. There may have been lots of promise, but there is a lot of friction which explains why PredictIt didn’t live up to that hype.