3 ms·
That only applies if you are updating priors. In this case the odds are fixed, the GP is correct.
by ska 5y ago
That only applies if you are updating priors. In this case the odds are fixed, the GP is correct.
- 323 5y agoThe odds of a rocking accident are known and fixed?
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- ska 5y agoProbably not. But they aren't affected by the previous N climbs, at least as described by GP post. They are considering a fixed odds event, and the probability of (bad thing happens) over a sample path through time. That's not the turkey fallacy. In other words , the difference between the turkey and the climber is the climber knows the odds (at least nominally) , and it’s important .