5 ms·

Is this the reverse of the Gambler's Fallacy? Instead of "The numbers haven't hit in a while, therefore they're going to hit soon." it's "The numbers haven't hi

Is this the reverse of the Gambler's Fallacy? Instead of "The numbers haven't hit in a while, therefore they're going to hit soon." it's "The numbers haven't hit yet, therefore they're never gonna hit."

jaggederest 5y ago
Also known as complacency. Working in a woodshop, one of the things you are most vulnerable to is failing to respect the danger you're in. This is why many experienced woodworkers have been injured by e.g. a table saw - you stop being as careful after such long exposure.
- 323 5y ago
  A related thing is normalization of deviance. You start removing safety because you see nothing bad happened before, until you are at a point where almost no safety rules are respected anymore. You can see this a lot in construction videos.
- toss1 5y ago
  Yup, complacency can kill you. In this case [0], a skydiver forgot to put on his parachute... https://reverentialramblings.com/2018/08/15/the-skydiver-who-forgot-his-parachute/ https://reverentialramblings.com/2018/08/15/the-skydiver-who...
  - ask_b123 5y ago
    Wow, that's terrifying and a good cautionary tale. Also, when I read > I’m hoping you can you forgive me as a minister of religion for likening this story to a spiritual cautionary tale. Yes, we do need to live each day as if it might be our last. I thought, "Hmm, sounds adventist", and sure enough :-)
  - stavros 5y ago
    Oh man, that's terrible. I can certainly understand how someone without a checklist that is verified by two people can do that, especially if you have a backpack on to mask the fact that the parachute is missing. Many times if I wear a tight jacket in the car, I forget to put my seat belt on, because I unconsciously mistake the pressure of the jacket for the seatbelt's, even though putting on a seat belt is usually the first thing I do. Poor guy.
    - ArcMex 5y ago
      I generally take off my jacket before driving for that very reason.
      - stavros 5y ago
        Luckily newer cars won't stop beeping if you forget your seatbelt, so the problem is mitigated. Not so for parachutes, apparently.
        necovek 5y ago
        To be honest, I never wear a parachute when driving!
        stavros 5y ago
        Better not drive close to cliffs then!
- blunte 5y ago
  And why pilots traditionally work from checklists, even if they've done the process thousands of times.

jaggederest 5y ago

Also known as complacency. Working in a woodshop, one of the things you are most vulnerable to is failing to respect the danger you're in. This is why many experienced woodworkers have been injured by e.g. a table saw - you stop being as careful after such long exposure.

323 5y ago
A related thing is normalization of deviance. You start removing safety because you see nothing bad happened before, until you are at a point where almost no safety rules are respected anymore. You can see this a lot in construction videos.
toss1 5y ago
Yup, complacency can kill you. In this case [0], a skydiver forgot to put on his parachute... https://reverentialramblings.com/2018/08/15/the-skydiver-who-forgot-his-parachute/ https://reverentialramblings.com/2018/08/15/the-skydiver-who...
- ask_b123 5y ago
  Wow, that's terrifying and a good cautionary tale. Also, when I read > I’m hoping you can you forgive me as a minister of religion for likening this story to a spiritual cautionary tale. Yes, we do need to live each day as if it might be our last. I thought, "Hmm, sounds adventist", and sure enough :-)
- stavros 5y ago
  Oh man, that's terrible. I can certainly understand how someone without a checklist that is verified by two people can do that, especially if you have a backpack on to mask the fact that the parachute is missing. Many times if I wear a tight jacket in the car, I forget to put my seat belt on, because I unconsciously mistake the pressure of the jacket for the seatbelt's, even though putting on a seat belt is usually the first thing I do. Poor guy.
  - ArcMex 5y ago
    I generally take off my jacket before driving for that very reason.
    - stavros 5y ago
      Luckily newer cars won't stop beeping if you forget your seatbelt, so the problem is mitigated. Not so for parachutes, apparently.
      - necovek 5y ago
        To be honest, I never wear a parachute when driving!
        stavros 5y ago
        Better not drive close to cliffs then!
blunte 5y ago
And why pilots traditionally work from checklists, even if they've done the process thousands of times.