This article is a little misleading because it conflates a few things. The low base rate prediction problem is a problem not just because of lazy application,

This article is a little misleading because it conflates a few things. The low base rate prediction problem is a problem not just because of lazy application, it's because the numbers make it impossible to do anything else in some situations. With a low enough base rate, you have to have a preternaturally good indicator to make anything but a negative prediction. Then you have to resort to utility theory and decide if false positives are worth the cost. Incidentally, the hiring example is poor because it's just not the same situation at all. The fact he's equating it to the other scenarios maybe says as much about the real problem as the scenario does itself.