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This is called the Turkey fallacy: the turkey was feed by humans for 1000 days, and after each feed event he updated his belief that humans care for him until i
by 323 5y ago
This is called the Turkey fallacy: the turkey was feed by humans for 1000 days, and after each feed event he updated his belief that humans care for him until it's now almost a statistical certainty.
- lapetitejort 5y agoIs this the reverse of the Gambler's Fallacy? Instead of "The numbers haven't hit in a while, therefore they're going to hit soon." it's "The numbers haven't hit yet, therefore they're never gonna hit."
- jaggederest 5y agoAlso known as complacency. Working in a woodshop, one of the things you are most vulnerable to is failing to respect the danger you're in. This is why many experienced woodworkers have been injured by e.g. a table saw - you stop being as careful after such long exposure.
- 323 5y agoA related thing is normalization of deviance. You start removing safety because you see nothing bad happened before, until you are at a point where almost no safety rules are respected anymore. You can see this a lot in construction videos.
- toss1 5y agoYup, complacency can kill you. In this case [0], a skydiver forgot to put on his parachute... https://reverentialramblings.com/2018/08/15/the-skydiver-who-forgot-his-parachute/ https://reverentialramblings.com/2018/08/15/the-skydiver-who...
- ask_b123 5y agoWow, that's terrifying and a good cautionary tale. Also, when I read > I’m hoping you can you forgive me as a minister of religion for likening this story to a spiritual cautionary tale. Yes, we do need to live each day as if it might be our last. I thought, "Hmm, sounds adventist", and sure enough :-)
- stavros 5y agoOh man, that's terrible. I can certainly understand how someone without a checklist that is verified by two people can do that, especially if you have a backpack on to mask the fact that the parachute is missing. Many times if I wear a tight jacket in the car, I forget to put my seat belt on, because I unconsciously mistake the pressure of the jacket for the seatbelt's, even though putting on a seat belt is usually the first thing I do. Poor guy.
- ArcMex 5y agoI generally take off my jacket before driving for that very reason.
- blunte 5y agoAnd why pilots traditionally work from checklists, even if they've done the process thousands of times.
- ska 5y agoThat only applies if you are updating priors. In this case the odds are fixed, the GP is correct.
- 323 5y agoThe odds of a rocking accident are known and fixed?
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- ska 5y agoProbably not. But they aren't affected by the previous N climbs, at least as described by GP post. They are considering a fixed odds event, and the probability of (bad thing happens) over a sample path through time. That's not the turkey fallacy. In other words , the difference between the turkey and the climber is the climber knows the odds (at least nominally) , and it’s important .
- totetsu 5y agoSurely sometime about the turkey getting fatter each time complicates this example.
- 8note 5y agohows yesterday's tree impacting today's?
- withinboredom 5y agoAll this reminds me of “if you are immortal and cannot be harmed, what are the odds of getting ‘stuck’?” I’d venture 100%.