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We know pandemics happen but we have no idea which viruses will become pandemic viruses - until one emerges, we're generally confident that there is not an immi
by XorNot 5y ago
We know pandemics happen but we have no idea which viruses will become pandemic viruses - until one emerges, we're generally confident that there is not an imminent pandemic.
- lolc 5y agoAfter SARS and MERS, the risk of another coronavirus-outbreak was well established.
- XorNot 5y agoNeither of those became pandemic viruses though. And the specific year over year risk was essentially unknown until a new virus emerged at such point we had a couple of months to determine what we thought would happen. That's the specific event risk: pretty obviously if we had maintained effective pandemic response measures, and maybe focussed on general infectious agent spread control measures as a society (i.e. a year over year goal to reduce influenza cases, update building codes to require less touchable surfaces to navigate) then we'd be better off then we are.
- lolc 5y agoThe possibility of a pandemic caused by a coronavirus was well recognized before it happened.
- scoofy 5y agoWho is we? The CDC is actively watching for pandemic signals all the time. We know pandemics happen, we know their rough power law occurrences. We know the most dangerous vectors of transmission. We can prepare for them. We typically don’t. Just look at all the aging housing infrastructure on the California coast. We know there will be major earthquakes and we know how often they happen, yet the general populace cares more about how pretty the historic buildings look, even though we know they will kill people. These are not black swan events.