2 ms·

>you have about 15 months to live Or a few minutes ... or 20 years. That's the thing w/ statistically independent trials.

• ska 5y ago
  That's like the difference between You could win 100mm in the lottery (true statement!) Lottery tickets are a good investment (almost always, false statement). Planning on "well it could happen, technically" isn't a good approach.
  • blunte 5y ago
    But when looking at a possible positive outcome, such as the lottery case, it can "make sense" to buy one ticket. Your chance of winning goes from No Chance to A Chance, which is an infinite improvement.
    • ska 5y ago
      That's not how this works as a rational investment choice. It's true that you can never win a lottery you don't enter, but the expected value of that ticket is vastly lower than what you paid for it. That means, as an investment, your $10 will be expected to do better in literally anything with a positive return. If you are buying > $10 worth of dreaming (for you), fine - but that's consumption.