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I missed your point in the original. As you say, "88% chance of winning" is not "expected to receive 88% of the vote". The 538 model attempted to weigh the re
by quesera 5y ago
I missed your point in the original.
As you say, "88% chance of winning" is not "expected to receive 88% of the vote".
The 538 model attempted to weigh the reliability (recency, reputation, magic pixie dust) of polling data and project a range of outcomes.
And even with a "perfect" model, it can take a while to absorb exogenous events like the Comey surprise.
The causes of 538's prediction error might be unknowable. Or, to be fair, if it was even an error! Would we expect probability to approach 100% in the moments before polling opens? Maybe in some fields, but 538 did not attempt this. IIRC they ended at ~70/30 Clinton. A single roll of a die (1d6) will frequently come up 1 or 2.