IIRC, a black swan event highlights the problem of induction when there is _no_ prior event that you can use to learn from. Eg: humans thought all swans were wh

IIRC, a black swan event highlights the problem of induction when there is _no_ prior event that you can use to learn from. Eg: humans thought all swans were white until the first black swan was encountered. So not just exceedingly rare but outside what you know AND extremely rare. Eg: Neither the housing crisis, Fukushima, supply chain crisis, nor the pandemic are black swans (they were seen before and was predicted/theorised) but the internet is.