4 ms·

What evidence do you (or anyone) have to support that there is an incoming recession?

AnEro 5y ago
I think it's fair regardless to try to prepare or ask how one would prepare for it, economic down turns happen it's a case of when not if. (Well, to be fair I'm extremely curious regardless.)
anm89 5y ago
That's not how recessions, economics, or finance works. No one has evidence for any future events. People have theories and models when it comes to economic and financial forecasting, not evidence.
- gmiller123456 5y ago
  Theories and models would count as evidence, just like it does for the weather. When someone talks about "the incoming rescission", it sounds an awful lot like they've read or heard something that convinced them one is on the way. It's worth asking them to share that with us.
  - anm89 5y ago
    It seems that you define the difference between "talking" and and "a theory" as the stuff you like is theories and therefore evidence and the stuff you dislike is talking therefore not evidence. you'll have to excuse me for not finding this compelling. A theory means people talking about what they think. Go read this thread. it's full of theories.
  - wnkrshm 5y ago
    People knowing the weather prediction doesn't change the weather though. In terms of non-linearity, economy is way harder to predict because of that.
    - gmiller123456 5y ago
      I wasn't claiming it did. In order for an economic prediction to change the people's behavior, someone still has to make the prediction.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
max_ 5y ago
I read a monthly report[0]. [0]: https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/chair-of-entrepreneurial-risks-dam/documents/FCO/FCO_Feb_2022.pdf https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/chair...
rufus_foreman 5y ago
The Fed is most likely about to start a cycle of interest rate hikes. Historically, such cycles result in a recession about 85% of the time. Maybe this time is different. But your default assumption should be that there will be a recession in the next year or two, and you should be prepared for that.
- bagacrap 5y ago
  uh, what? citation please. The Fed tends to hike rates when markets are otherwise doing well. That is, during bull markets.

I think it's fair regardless to try to prepare or ask how one would prepare for it, economic down turns happen it's a case of when not if. (Well, to be fair I'm extremely curious regardless.)

anm89 5y ago

That's not how recessions, economics, or finance works. No one has evidence for any future events. People have theories and models when it comes to economic and financial forecasting, not evidence.

gmiller123456 5y ago
Theories and models would count as evidence, just like it does for the weather. When someone talks about "the incoming rescission", it sounds an awful lot like they've read or heard something that convinced them one is on the way. It's worth asking them to share that with us.
- anm89 5y ago
  It seems that you define the difference between "talking" and and "a theory" as the stuff you like is theories and therefore evidence and the stuff you dislike is talking therefore not evidence. you'll have to excuse me for not finding this compelling. A theory means people talking about what they think. Go read this thread. it's full of theories.
- wnkrshm 5y ago
  People knowing the weather prediction doesn't change the weather though. In terms of non-linearity, economy is way harder to predict because of that.
  - gmiller123456 5y ago
    I wasn't claiming it did. In order for an economic prediction to change the people's behavior, someone still has to make the prediction.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

max_ 5y ago

I read a monthly report[0]. [0]: https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/chair-of-entrepreneurial-risks-dam/documents/FCO/FCO_Feb_2022.pdf https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/chair...

rufus_foreman 5y ago

The Fed is most likely about to start a cycle of interest rate hikes. Historically, such cycles result in a recession about 85% of the time. Maybe this time is different. But your default assumption should be that there will be a recession in the next year or two, and you should be prepared for that.

bagacrap 5y ago
uh, what? citation please. The Fed tends to hike rates when markets are otherwise doing well. That is, during bull markets.