in my experience people should be contributing _something_ within a month, hit a reasonable stride by 6 months, and asymptotically approach full speed extending

in my experience people should be contributing _something_ within a month, hit a reasonable stride by 6 months, and asymptotically approach full speed extending out to 36 months. A lot of the speed a junior, or new person has, is in not considering the things they do not know. If the system is incredibly robust it will just absorb their bad decisions. But in most decisions it means they planted ticking bombs. Often 5 minutes today costs 5 hours in 6+ months time.