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The thing is, the market can be right without knowing why it is right. The market thinks that in some fixed, relatively near point in the future we will look b
by unfocussed_mike 5y ago
The thing is, the market can be right without knowing why it is right.
The market thinks that in some fixed, relatively near point in the future we will look back at now and say "Intel was already hosed, it just didn't know it".
It may be that the market is currently only expressing interest in the hopes of others that this particular future will come to pass, but that is the only way it will.
- ant6n 5y agoThe market used to think AMD was hosed. About 5 years ago, the stock was worth less than 2$. Now its more than a 100$. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- unfocussed_mike 5y agoRight but the key difference is that post-recovery AMD is fabless, because they spun off their fab business. AMD's stock can jump like this, because its value is based more closely on its designs. Intel is not taking that approach. One amazing chip design isn't going to massively change their fortunes, and they are heavily sunk in x86, which is not the chip series the market is most interested in. One meaningful path forward for Intel is to split in two, precisely so that the x86 design business can be liberated by being fabless, and the fab businesses can get on with making unsexy larger-process chips for everyone in America who needs them. But Intel seem to be resisting this.
- ant6n 5y agoWhen AMD was at 2$, the story was that their chips designs are shit, slow, overheating etc. And since they had just flogged off their foundry they didn´t have access to any useful process, thus the chips were more slow and hot and power hungry. They also tons of debt, and basically no assets, and no way to compete - while Intel had the best chip designs and the best foundries. We'll see what the story will be going forward.