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People (in the hand-wavey aggregate but also specifically in tech media, on Hacker News etc.) have been describing Uber as destined to fail and built on a found

People (in the hand-wavey aggregate but also specifically in tech media, on Hacker News etc.) have been describing Uber as destined to fail and built on a foundation of vc-subsidised-rides since... 2012? 2013? 2011? Uber's rational narrative fell apart when their "earn $100k a year driving for Uber!" myth fell apart, and that was... a year after launch? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-ftc/uber-to-pay-20-million-to-settle-u-s-claims-it-misled-drivers-idUSKBN15334C https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-ftc/uber-to-pay-20-m...

elbasti 5y ago
Yes, but "people" also used the same arguments to describe the failure of facebook, snapchat, airbnb, amazon, etc. A sort of unsophisticated "these businesses are stupid/illegal/throwing money away" bearishness. The reason those bears were wrong was because fb, snap, and airbnb are network-effects businesses. If ride-sharing had turned out to be a network-effect service as well, the bears would have lost. I don't remember any arguments back then talking about why Uber was not a network effects business. And it's actually quite subtle! For example, why did AirBnB win? On the surface homesharing seems VERY similar to ridesharing and yet it's behaved very differently as a bushiness and has not been a race to the bottom.
- pessimizer 5y ago
  > Yes, but "people" also used the same arguments to describe the failure of facebook, snapchat, airbnb, amazon, etc. A sort of unsophisticated "these businesses are stupid/illegal/throwing money away" bearishness. Those are entirely different arguments about unrelated companies. You seem to be saying that people have said negative things about things, therefore nothing important was being said about Uber. Virtually every critic I've ever heard commenting about Uber as a business is exactly the one you have painted as having been unthinkable.
- pnutjam 5y ago
  Because you need a big investment to home-share. Poor people can't get into it. It's a smaller market.
- bsder 5y ago
  > For example, why did AirBnB win? Because they were and continue to be completely willing to ignore any and all local laws until someone actually shows up and bashes them for it. If it weren't for Covid shutting everything down and putting housing back into the local rental market, I suspect AirBnB was headed for some very large lawsuits. We'll see if that continues once things pick up again.
  - SergeAx 5y ago
    > Because they were and continue to be completely willing to ignore any and all local laws Wasn't Uber doing the same?
mslate 5y ago
2012 was 10 years ago. Ten years later they are a $73 billion market cap publicly traded company. I would call that the opposite of a "fail"

elbasti 5y ago

Yes, but "people" also used the same arguments to describe the failure of facebook, snapchat, airbnb, amazon, etc. A sort of unsophisticated "these businesses are stupid/illegal/throwing money away" bearishness. The reason those bears were wrong was because fb, snap, and airbnb are network-effects businesses. If ride-sharing had turned out to be a network-effect service as well, the bears would have lost. I don't remember any arguments back then talking about why Uber was not a network effects business. And it's actually quite subtle! For example, why did AirBnB win? On the surface homesharing seems VERY similar to ridesharing and yet it's behaved very differently as a bushiness and has not been a race to the bottom.

pessimizer 5y ago
> Yes, but "people" also used the same arguments to describe the failure of facebook, snapchat, airbnb, amazon, etc. A sort of unsophisticated "these businesses are stupid/illegal/throwing money away" bearishness. Those are entirely different arguments about unrelated companies. You seem to be saying that people have said negative things about things, therefore nothing important was being said about Uber. Virtually every critic I've ever heard commenting about Uber as a business is exactly the one you have painted as having been unthinkable.
pnutjam 5y ago
Because you need a big investment to home-share. Poor people can't get into it. It's a smaller market.
bsder 5y ago
> For example, why did AirBnB win? Because they were and continue to be completely willing to ignore any and all local laws until someone actually shows up and bashes them for it. If it weren't for Covid shutting everything down and putting housing back into the local rental market, I suspect AirBnB was headed for some very large lawsuits. We'll see if that continues once things pick up again.
- SergeAx 5y ago
  > Because they were and continue to be completely willing to ignore any and all local laws Wasn't Uber doing the same?

mslate 5y ago

2012 was 10 years ago. Ten years later they are a $73 billion market cap publicly traded company. I would call that the opposite of a "fail"