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> The USD as a default currency gives many benefits to the US (e.g., essentially free money). This is not true. USD as a default reserve currency is bad for US

> The USD as a default currency gives many benefits to the US (e.g., essentially free money). This is not true. USD as a default reserve currency is bad for US since US is no longer a net producer economy. What happens is other countries like China which are net producer economies take our paper dollars and invest it in our hard assets - such as stocks and real estates essentially inflating their prices and pricing out many US citizens. If you look at the foreign ownership trend of these assets over recent years, this is quite clear.

bigcat123 5y ago
echelon 5y ago
The USD as a default reserve currency gives US citizens outsized PPP. If the USD was no longer the reserve currency, there would be pricing shocks throughout the economy. Reserve currency status allows the US to advantageously print away its debt and more easily navigate global recessions. It's essentially a superpower, and the US won't give it up easily. While it's true that the US is not a net producer, it has a best in class service economy. Software, entertainment, financials. Soon China won't be able to cheaply afford to run its factories and it too will be looking to outsource to developing countries. This is why it's morphing into a service economy as well. Manufacturing hopping from country to country is a great tool for bringing entire nations out of poverty. The lack of low hanging fruit for developed economies makes it harder for the middle class than in earlier generations (midpoint in the S-curve), but bringing manufacturing back won't work without tariffs and a shut off of cheap imports. While the US could do well to onshore production of critical components (semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, steel, etc.), or to place them in more friendly international jurisdictions (bonus if they're not concentrated to one country/region), the long-term future for production is automation.
- mercy_dude 5y ago
  This is a classic neo-con argument, maintain the status quo at the expense of your middle and working class people being priced out in their own country that them and their ancestors built. Why build anything when the largest monetary reward in society goes to some idiot in Goldman Sachs tweaking numbers in balance sheet or some tool in HR department. Enough said about the service sector. > While the US could do well to onshore production of critical components And how exactly is the US going to do that? The prices of raw material/oil is decade high and supply chain is completely broken. These things are going to cost even more money and going to need more money printing. It took China to build these things 30yrs even doing so at the record pace. Reality is the largest buyer of US debt is now the Fed. Any attempt to control the inflation at the backdrop of 33 trillion debt with higher rates is going to seriously raise the possibility of sovereign default. So hyperinflation and devaluations is the only way out. And the resulting political and social unrest follows.
  - echelon 5y ago
    > This is a classic neo-con argument I don't follow this line of thinking at all. Could you explain how our middle class could go back to manufacturing and earn a decent wage? As long as there is a global market and we're not isolated from it, we cannot compete from a wage perspective. > > While the US could do well to onshore production of critical components > And how exactly is the US going to do that? I didn't say "onshore everything". Look at the money we're spending on Intel and TSM to build plants in CONUS. We do that with key chemicals and pharmaceuticals. We don't need to make textiles or goods we can source from anywhere. > Reality is the largest buyer of US debt is now the Fed. Any attempt to control the inflation at the backdrop of 33 trillion debt with higher rates is going to seriously raise the possibility of sovereign default. So hyperinflation and devaluations is the only way out. And the resulting political and social unrest follows. I'm not sure where this came from. I think we have a handle on things. Others agree. If we didn't, the market would have way worse uncertainty priced in.
  - andrewjl 5y ago
    > maintain the status quo at the expense of your middle and working class people being priced out in their own country that them and their ancestors built. Curious what do you expect to happen to the middle and working class people if the US loses its reserve currency status? How do you think things would improve for them?

bigcat123 5y ago

echelon 5y ago

The USD as a default reserve currency gives US citizens outsized PPP. If the USD was no longer the reserve currency, there would be pricing shocks throughout the economy. Reserve currency status allows the US to advantageously print away its debt and more easily navigate global recessions. It's essentially a superpower, and the US won't give it up easily. While it's true that the US is not a net producer, it has a best in class service economy. Software, entertainment, financials. Soon China won't be able to cheaply afford to run its factories and it too will be looking to outsource to developing countries. This is why it's morphing into a service economy as well. Manufacturing hopping from country to country is a great tool for bringing entire nations out of poverty. The lack of low hanging fruit for developed economies makes it harder for the middle class than in earlier generations (midpoint in the S-curve), but bringing manufacturing back won't work without tariffs and a shut off of cheap imports. While the US could do well to onshore production of critical components (semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, steel, etc.), or to place them in more friendly international jurisdictions (bonus if they're not concentrated to one country/region), the long-term future for production is automation.

mercy_dude 5y ago
This is a classic neo-con argument, maintain the status quo at the expense of your middle and working class people being priced out in their own country that them and their ancestors built. Why build anything when the largest monetary reward in society goes to some idiot in Goldman Sachs tweaking numbers in balance sheet or some tool in HR department. Enough said about the service sector. > While the US could do well to onshore production of critical components And how exactly is the US going to do that? The prices of raw material/oil is decade high and supply chain is completely broken. These things are going to cost even more money and going to need more money printing. It took China to build these things 30yrs even doing so at the record pace. Reality is the largest buyer of US debt is now the Fed. Any attempt to control the inflation at the backdrop of 33 trillion debt with higher rates is going to seriously raise the possibility of sovereign default. So hyperinflation and devaluations is the only way out. And the resulting political and social unrest follows.
- echelon 5y ago
  > This is a classic neo-con argument I don't follow this line of thinking at all. Could you explain how our middle class could go back to manufacturing and earn a decent wage? As long as there is a global market and we're not isolated from it, we cannot compete from a wage perspective. > > While the US could do well to onshore production of critical components > And how exactly is the US going to do that? I didn't say "onshore everything". Look at the money we're spending on Intel and TSM to build plants in CONUS. We do that with key chemicals and pharmaceuticals. We don't need to make textiles or goods we can source from anywhere. > Reality is the largest buyer of US debt is now the Fed. Any attempt to control the inflation at the backdrop of 33 trillion debt with higher rates is going to seriously raise the possibility of sovereign default. So hyperinflation and devaluations is the only way out. And the resulting political and social unrest follows. I'm not sure where this came from. I think we have a handle on things. Others agree. If we didn't, the market would have way worse uncertainty priced in.
- andrewjl 5y ago
  > maintain the status quo at the expense of your middle and working class people being priced out in their own country that them and their ancestors built. Curious what do you expect to happen to the middle and working class people if the US loses its reserve currency status? How do you think things would improve for them?