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Tesla doesn’t have to be safer now to follow this reasoning. If Tesla’s approach ultimately succeeds in getting FSD working and into the mainstream, then for e
by zaroth 5y ago
Tesla doesn’t have to be safer now to follow this reasoning.
If Tesla’s approach ultimately succeeds in getting FSD working and into the mainstream, then for each year earlier that happens than it otherwise would, up to about 30,000 lives are saved, millions of injuries prevented, and roughly $1 trillion USD in total lifetime value is preserved as the worldwide accident rate goes to zero.
In that context, FSD should absolutely be civilization’s next moonshot.
That’s to say nothing of the other economic benefits besides simply killed and maiming fewer people and destroying less property.
- Tempest1981 5y agoHow did you calculate the $1 trillion/year? What cost would be attributed to Covid, roughly?
- zaroth 5y agohttps://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812013 https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/... That’s just the USA
- carlivar 5y agoInteresting idea. But the only problem with it is the assumption Tesla can succeed. I am not sure about that. The other, darker, possibility is that Tesla does so poorly in this moonshot that they poison the well for everyone else, some of whom might be more equipped to succeed.
- zaroth 5y agoTo be clear, I’m not saying they will or won’t succeed! And the converse is true too! If through their actions FSD is ultimately delayed a year, then they contributed to extended the carnage of human driven automobiles. The point is the scale of the problem, and how valuable it is to solve it.
- seanhunter 5y agoThere are a lot of legs to your hypothetical here. In particular assuming that Tesla's approach ultimately succeeds is a big leap. If Tesla's approach ultimately turns into a dead end (and that is the outcome of the overwhelming majority of very ambitious tech projects) then all the time and resources spent on Tesla's approach could be seen in hindsight to have been diverted away from potentially fruitful projects and are actually making mainstream FSD happen later than they otherwise would. FSD being civilization's next moonshot doesn't mean Tesla should necessarily get a free pass to test beta FSD tech out on public roads without scrutiny.