I've seen a bunch of people saying your financial calculations are correct, but I disagree. One person pointed out "why are you saying the optimistic side?" Th

I've seen a bunch of people saying your financial calculations are correct, but I disagree. One person pointed out "why are you saying the optimistic side?" This _can_ be calculated, and it doesn't seem like you are applying realistic probabilities. This is pretty routine in value investing when you are trying to value a company. In essence, you multiply the probability of each possible valuation by the valuation, and then sum them up over the expected number of years. Here's a quick calculator I threw together with possible scenarios what you can modify: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTox68rXDr1rAgflufwi2eZ-5iTRB9juabdtuq4JXA4jBcoynZ7mKHNlGFI3tOrpGwhPhAmVcKnKC9B/pubhtml https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTox68rXDr1r... At the end of the day, it's a risk reward tradeoff, this can help put things in the correct picture for what you're after. Startups have been said a number of times _do not_ give you the best odds for making money. Investors, often because they start earlier in the company, are trading more risk for higher possible payoff. Make sure that you don't delude yourself with probabilities, get actual base rates (how many startups fail in 5 years? How many go public?), and if you have insight to believe this is different, then you should modify that base rate.