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US: Russian Invasion of Ukraine ‘Could Happen at Any Time’

simonblack 5y ago
Follow the money. What benefit does Russia get from taking over a bankrupt failed state like Ukraine? Taking over Ukraine would cost more than it's worth. Better for Russia to let the EU keep pouring its own scarce resources into the bottomless sink that is Ukraine instead. ('No way, Jose' is pretty much what the Russians have been saying for several months while the West has kept screaming 'Russian Invasion Imminent'.)
- artem247 5y ago
  GDP of Ukraine has grown between 2015 and 2021 by 114%. So much for “bankrupt failed state”.
  - simonblack 5y ago
    So much for “bankrupt failed state”. So why the constant need for loans from the IMF/EU/etc ? Below are details of at least one loan per month. That doesn't sound like "not bankrupt" to me. Commission tables proposal for €1.2 billion emergency macro-financial assistance package for Ukraine, as announced by President von der Leyen = 1 Feb 2022 = https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_674 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_... Canada to offer Ukraine a loan, seeks other ways to help Kyiv deal with Russia = 24 Jan 2022 = https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-offer-ukraine-loan-up-c120-mln-russia-crisis-deepens-pm-2022-01-21/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-offer-ukraine-... Ukraine receives more World Bank funds to fight COVID-19 = 11 dec 2021 = https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ukraine-receives-more-world-bank-funds-fight-covid-19-2021-12-11/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ukraine-receives...
    - artem247 5y ago
      You use the logic of consumer loans for the country, loans are not bad per se. There are certain infrastructure and social projects going on, so that would speed them up. Ukraine’s economy grows even during pandemic, so increased spending would Second, the media campaign triggered an issue with currency, which already cost more than 1 billion USD of treasury funds. Btw, Ukraine has gold/foreign currency reserves, so it’s not bankrupt just by that account. Third, you need to look at GDP to debt ratio, which for Ukraine is completely healthy, lower than many EU countries, much lower than US.
rdtwo 5y ago
I mean so could the US invasion of Mexico… it could… not likely by omg it definitely could
- syki 5y ago
  This isn’t true in the sense the article is talking about. There are nowhere near enough American forces ready for a strike into Mexico. Supplies and whatnot haven’t been stockpiled for an invasion of Mexico and the probability that Russia invades Ukraine next week is far greater than the probability that the U.S. invaded Mexico next week. Clearly one possibility is worth far greater consideration than the other.
  - rdtwo 5y ago
    Or the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. That’s also possible but until it happens is just possible. Shit even the North Korean invasion of the south.

Follow the money. What benefit does Russia get from taking over a bankrupt failed state like Ukraine? Taking over Ukraine would cost more than it's worth. Better for Russia to let the EU keep pouring its own scarce resources into the bottomless sink that is Ukraine instead. ('No way, Jose' is pretty much what the Russians have been saying for several months while the West has kept screaming 'Russian Invasion Imminent'.)

artem247 5y ago
GDP of Ukraine has grown between 2015 and 2021 by 114%. So much for “bankrupt failed state”.
- simonblack 5y ago
  So much for “bankrupt failed state”. So why the constant need for loans from the IMF/EU/etc ? Below are details of at least one loan per month. That doesn't sound like "not bankrupt" to me. Commission tables proposal for €1.2 billion emergency macro-financial assistance package for Ukraine, as announced by President von der Leyen = 1 Feb 2022 = https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_674 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_... Canada to offer Ukraine a loan, seeks other ways to help Kyiv deal with Russia = 24 Jan 2022 = https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-offer-ukraine-loan-up-c120-mln-russia-crisis-deepens-pm-2022-01-21/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-offer-ukraine-... Ukraine receives more World Bank funds to fight COVID-19 = 11 dec 2021 = https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ukraine-receives-more-world-bank-funds-fight-covid-19-2021-12-11/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ukraine-receives...
  - artem247 5y ago
    You use the logic of consumer loans for the country, loans are not bad per se. There are certain infrastructure and social projects going on, so that would speed them up. Ukraine’s economy grows even during pandemic, so increased spending would Second, the media campaign triggered an issue with currency, which already cost more than 1 billion USD of treasury funds. Btw, Ukraine has gold/foreign currency reserves, so it’s not bankrupt just by that account. Third, you need to look at GDP to debt ratio, which for Ukraine is completely healthy, lower than many EU countries, much lower than US.

rdtwo 5y ago

I mean so could the US invasion of Mexico… it could… not likely by omg it definitely could

syki 5y ago
This isn’t true in the sense the article is talking about. There are nowhere near enough American forces ready for a strike into Mexico. Supplies and whatnot haven’t been stockpiled for an invasion of Mexico and the probability that Russia invades Ukraine next week is far greater than the probability that the U.S. invaded Mexico next week. Clearly one possibility is worth far greater consideration than the other.
- rdtwo 5y ago
  Or the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. That’s also possible but until it happens is just possible. Shit even the North Korean invasion of the south.