The short answer is, yes, I think we could come up with a test over some period of time where either you would turn out to be right or the alarmists would. But,

The short answer is, yes, I think we could come up with a test over some period of time where either you would turn out to be right or the alarmists would. But, we'd probably have to extend it out to the beginning of 2014, due to new rules taking effect (FATCA) and the speed we could expect from the IRS. Long timetables are a lot less interesting, unfortunately. I've done a brief amount of Googling for more information, and I can bring to the discussion a handful of links and at least one case of "regular Americans tripped up by the law", but since it's probably just you and I in this discussion at this point, I'll leave it up to you whether or not you want to pursue this anymore. Re: the Japanese disaster, you're right, other people were making wild fearsome predictions, like the end of support for nuclear power, and clearly that hasn't happened. And, it's not a matter of win or lose or right or wrong -- I just meant to establish that betting against bad outcomes doesn't always work out in your favor (the generic "you" here). I probably should not have used that as an example though.