3 ms·

> Unless Omnicron dissociated it, worse experience == more viral load == more infectious; vaccine reduced (and potentially for some elimintated) viral load and

> Unless Omnicron dissociated it, worse experience == more viral load == more infectious; vaccine reduced (and potentially for some elimintated) viral load and thus reduced infectiousness. I'm not quite sure what you're stating here. You disagree with the conclusions here and believe there is evidence that vaccinations significantly impact community transmission of covid? If so, could you provide references to that evidence?

tomrod 5y ago
I haven't had a chance to review the study yet (but look forward to doing so); I'm stating my current understanding. Delta allowed for breakthrough cases; the rate was dramatically lower than unvaccinated overall (I handled reporting on some these stats in our region). I haven't been as involved since the start of the omnicron variant, but my understanding is that the relationship still holds that prob(infected | vaccinated) < prob(infected | unvaccinated and no reported prior case). COVID-19 intensity of illness was (and may still be?) associated to the relative infectiousness of an individual to others in their network (across the entire episode). So an asymptomatic individual (vs. presymptomatic before intense illness) was less infectious overall.[0] > Question What are the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 G614 viral shedding in incident infections in association with COVID-19 symptom onset and severity? > Findings In a cohort study of persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after recent exposure, viral RNA trajectory was characterized by a rapid peak followed by slower decay. Peak viral load correlated positively with symptom severity and generally occurred within 1 day of symptom onset if the patient was symptomatic. [0] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2787768 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle...
- throwawaylinux 5y ago
  Thanks, but I was asking specifically about evidence for significant impact on actual spread within the community, which is what's under discussion. I'm aware there is data about severity of cases in individuals, but I haven't seen good data showing the impact to community transmission.
  - tomrod 5y ago
    Ah. That's applications of basic propensity. I'm trying to remember if our herd immunity artcle covered the monitoring stats ratios between vaccinated and unvaccinated. I'm thinking that the lead author left it out [0] https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/CAT.21.0288 https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/CAT.21.0288
    - throwawaylinux 5y ago
      I don't know quite what you mean, but I take it that you have no evidence that vaccines significantly impact community transmission either.
      - tomrod 5y ago
        You take it incorrectly. The incidence rate ratios of COVID-19 are impacted by vaccination status. Published January 28, 2022: [0] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7105e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7105e1.htm > All incidence and hospitalization rate ratios exceeded 1, regardless of predominant variant, indicating that the risks were consistently highest for unvaccinated persons and that COVID-19 vaccines were protective against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19–associated hospitalization among fully vaccinated persons, and most protective among those with a booster. Published 2/2/2022 [1] https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/... This one shows a nice breakdown of the incidence rate ratio among age groups and similar. ------------ What does this have to do with community transmission? [1] If you aren't infected, you aren't spreading the disease [2] A lower transmission rate equates to lower community spread all else equal (as someone identified earlier, Jevon's paradox could come to head) [3] The lower IRR is a lower propensity (or, if you prefer, a lower R_t) between the two groups. ----------- This matches what I see in my regional reporting; the IRR is significantly different between the two groups. In my area (a red state in the US) behaviors are mostly back to pre-pandemic levels of behavior, so it is reasonable to conclude that the IRR in my area is representative of life following any COVID-19 protocols being relaxed.

tomrod 5y ago

I haven't had a chance to review the study yet (but look forward to doing so); I'm stating my current understanding. Delta allowed for breakthrough cases; the rate was dramatically lower than unvaccinated overall (I handled reporting on some these stats in our region). I haven't been as involved since the start of the omnicron variant, but my understanding is that the relationship still holds that prob(infected | vaccinated) < prob(infected | unvaccinated and no reported prior case). COVID-19 intensity of illness was (and may still be?) associated to the relative infectiousness of an individual to others in their network (across the entire episode). So an asymptomatic individual (vs. presymptomatic before intense illness) was less infectious overall.[0] > Question What are the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 G614 viral shedding in incident infections in association with COVID-19 symptom onset and severity? > Findings In a cohort study of persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after recent exposure, viral RNA trajectory was characterized by a rapid peak followed by slower decay. Peak viral load correlated positively with symptom severity and generally occurred within 1 day of symptom onset if the patient was symptomatic. [0] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2787768 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle...

throwawaylinux 5y ago
Thanks, but I was asking specifically about evidence for significant impact on actual spread within the community, which is what's under discussion. I'm aware there is data about severity of cases in individuals, but I haven't seen good data showing the impact to community transmission.
- tomrod 5y ago
  Ah. That's applications of basic propensity. I'm trying to remember if our herd immunity artcle covered the monitoring stats ratios between vaccinated and unvaccinated. I'm thinking that the lead author left it out [0] https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/CAT.21.0288 https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/CAT.21.0288
  - throwawaylinux 5y ago
    I don't know quite what you mean, but I take it that you have no evidence that vaccines significantly impact community transmission either.
    - tomrod 5y ago
      You take it incorrectly. The incidence rate ratios of COVID-19 are impacted by vaccination status. Published January 28, 2022: [0] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7105e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7105e1.htm > All incidence and hospitalization rate ratios exceeded 1, regardless of predominant variant, indicating that the risks were consistently highest for unvaccinated persons and that COVID-19 vaccines were protective against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19–associated hospitalization among fully vaccinated persons, and most protective among those with a booster. Published 2/2/2022 [1] https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/... This one shows a nice breakdown of the incidence rate ratio among age groups and similar. ------------ What does this have to do with community transmission? [1] If you aren't infected, you aren't spreading the disease [2] A lower transmission rate equates to lower community spread all else equal (as someone identified earlier, Jevon's paradox could come to head) [3] The lower IRR is a lower propensity (or, if you prefer, a lower R_t) between the two groups. ----------- This matches what I see in my regional reporting; the IRR is significantly different between the two groups. In my area (a red state in the US) behaviors are mostly back to pre-pandemic levels of behavior, so it is reasonable to conclude that the IRR in my area is representative of life following any COVID-19 protocols being relaxed.