5 ms·

There’s a view that countries which have deep and mutually dependent trade relationships have too much to lose to go to war with one another. The success of the

There’s a view that countries which have deep and mutually dependent trade relationships have too much to lose to go to war with one another. The success of the European Union in this respect appears to validate this view. I’m not saying it’s correct, it’s just that German dependence on Russian gas, and Russian dependence on German gas payments isn’t necessarily a bad outcome for two old foes.

torstenvl 5y ago
Yes, economic interdependence is helpful, but it's most helpful when (a) the dependence is bilateral by having a uniform market like la Communauté Européenne du Charbon et de l'Acier which you alluded to; (b) the market directly relates to materials of war (again, like the CECA); and (c) the war you're trying to avoid is direct and violent, rather than, say, a plausibly deniable false flag operation to annex part of a nearby nation. Germany can't build steel rifles and tanks to invade France if it needs France to make things out of steel. I don't think it follows that Russia can't annex any European nation's territory if it likes getting money from Germany.
- scrubs 5y ago
  Agree: @biologist123's assessment is part day dreaming, part naive, and part right. Still. Russia? Since WWII most other countries have moved on in a serious way. Look at China and Japan now v. 1945. Look at Germany. Russia is the laggard. In particular there are certain to be economics involved in selling natural gas, but Germany seems a little too needy for it, and Russia can't seem to take no for answer. Neither one of them can seem to stop hanging out in the alleyway to explain what's going on out here in the light. Germany-Russia from what I can tell tends to have dynamics of a 3-way love triangle with the 3rd vertex reality: first they're together, then they fight, then retire to a neutral corner.
burneracct33 5y ago
There is another view that these “old foes” are dividing east europe again. At the end of the day its convenient for germany to have an underdeveloped east europe as it is for russia to have a long buffer between its citizens and west european values. A win win situation that indeed prevents war. The view goes on to say that attempting to ban nuclear eu wide will make europe even more dependant on russia, enabling to latter to blackmail the continent as it pleases. And finally, the less common view is that germany and russia both grinned a bit when the uk left the eu after germany conveniently pushed for mass migration (at the same time russia defending the push factor government of syria) while it being a decisive vote swinger in the uk. Fun times we live in.
- estaseuropano 5y ago
  A lot to unpack in your post, but to tackle just the most egregious one: what would Germany have to gain in keeping its neighbors poor? German companies do far more trade with Poland than Russia, not to mention the other Eastern EU (Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, baltics) and non-EU countries. Germany has every interest in helping the East develop and do so. E.g. in 2020 they quickly pushed for joint EU bonds to inject money into the eastern countries (and Italy and Spain)
  - hobofan 5y ago
    > Germany have to gain in keeping its neighbors poor? Cheap labor that's also close? I don't know how big the impact would be if they were to go away, but e.g. agriculture relies on eastern europeans as farmhands, and the construction industry as well.
    - burneracct33 5y ago
      And most important lower tech, meaning less competition for german made products. You know, better keep them east europeans developed enough to rid germany of old cars and hardware but poor enough to prevent them from manufacturing their own as they wouldnt afford the bleeding edge tech required to meed demand, and ideally, they wouldnt be able to invest in cheap nuclear power to lower costs. So while east eu products are deemed low quality, germany is perfectly fine with importing chinese products that barely meet eu standards.
  - burneracct33 5y ago
    > E.g. in 2020 they quickly pushed for joint EU bonds to inject money into the eastern countries (and Italy and Spain) Basically to subsidise buying german products. While Italy and Spain have a debt issue, east eu has an entry barrier issue, always playing catchup with expensive eu regulation. Take nuclear. We know what country pushes for an eu wide ban and thats a basic example of what east eu needs to lower costs. The only “benefit” of german imposed economic policies is that they sunk south europe to a stage where if east europe is smart it can overtake it economically. But you know made in east eu is low quality yet made in china is fine, so say the germans.

torstenvl 5y ago

Yes, economic interdependence is helpful, but it's most helpful when (a) the dependence is bilateral by having a uniform market like la Communauté Européenne du Charbon et de l'Acier which you alluded to; (b) the market directly relates to materials of war (again, like the CECA); and (c) the war you're trying to avoid is direct and violent, rather than, say, a plausibly deniable false flag operation to annex part of a nearby nation. Germany can't build steel rifles and tanks to invade France if it needs France to make things out of steel. I don't think it follows that Russia can't annex any European nation's territory if it likes getting money from Germany.

scrubs 5y ago
Agree: @biologist123's assessment is part day dreaming, part naive, and part right. Still. Russia? Since WWII most other countries have moved on in a serious way. Look at China and Japan now v. 1945. Look at Germany. Russia is the laggard. In particular there are certain to be economics involved in selling natural gas, but Germany seems a little too needy for it, and Russia can't seem to take no for answer. Neither one of them can seem to stop hanging out in the alleyway to explain what's going on out here in the light. Germany-Russia from what I can tell tends to have dynamics of a 3-way love triangle with the 3rd vertex reality: first they're together, then they fight, then retire to a neutral corner.

burneracct33 5y ago

There is another view that these “old foes” are dividing east europe again. At the end of the day its convenient for germany to have an underdeveloped east europe as it is for russia to have a long buffer between its citizens and west european values. A win win situation that indeed prevents war. The view goes on to say that attempting to ban nuclear eu wide will make europe even more dependant on russia, enabling to latter to blackmail the continent as it pleases. And finally, the less common view is that germany and russia both grinned a bit when the uk left the eu after germany conveniently pushed for mass migration (at the same time russia defending the push factor government of syria) while it being a decisive vote swinger in the uk. Fun times we live in.

estaseuropano 5y ago
A lot to unpack in your post, but to tackle just the most egregious one: what would Germany have to gain in keeping its neighbors poor? German companies do far more trade with Poland than Russia, not to mention the other Eastern EU (Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, baltics) and non-EU countries. Germany has every interest in helping the East develop and do so. E.g. in 2020 they quickly pushed for joint EU bonds to inject money into the eastern countries (and Italy and Spain)
- hobofan 5y ago
  > Germany have to gain in keeping its neighbors poor? Cheap labor that's also close? I don't know how big the impact would be if they were to go away, but e.g. agriculture relies on eastern europeans as farmhands, and the construction industry as well.
  - burneracct33 5y ago
    And most important lower tech, meaning less competition for german made products. You know, better keep them east europeans developed enough to rid germany of old cars and hardware but poor enough to prevent them from manufacturing their own as they wouldnt afford the bleeding edge tech required to meed demand, and ideally, they wouldnt be able to invest in cheap nuclear power to lower costs. So while east eu products are deemed low quality, germany is perfectly fine with importing chinese products that barely meet eu standards.
- burneracct33 5y ago
  > E.g. in 2020 they quickly pushed for joint EU bonds to inject money into the eastern countries (and Italy and Spain) Basically to subsidise buying german products. While Italy and Spain have a debt issue, east eu has an entry barrier issue, always playing catchup with expensive eu regulation. Take nuclear. We know what country pushes for an eu wide ban and thats a basic example of what east eu needs to lower costs. The only “benefit” of german imposed economic policies is that they sunk south europe to a stage where if east europe is smart it can overtake it economically. But you know made in east eu is low quality yet made in china is fine, so say the germans.