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Russia is obviously preparing for a full-scale invasion. It may be a bluff or not, we don't know. But as I said, they don't even deny buildup. They just say t

Russia is obviously preparing for a full-scale invasion. It may be a bluff or not, we don't know. But as I said, they don't even deny buildup. They just say that they do not want to invade and that it is their right to gather army all around Ukraine. None of our business. Instead they make demands with regard to security of countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and of course Ukraine.

vbezhenar 5y ago
Ukraine is preparing to attack Donbass. Of course Russia is gathering army to be ready to defend from Ukrainian forces if necessary.
- Isinlor 5y ago
  Yes, very possible. Ukraine wants Donbas and Crimea back. And they are not excluding use of force. This is also why Ukraine will not join NATO until they resolve their business with Russia.
- dandanua 5y ago
  Why would they want to reclaim Donbass and Crimea right now? They can easily wait until Russia collapses under the rule of a madman.
- mike_k 5y ago
  As someone born in Crimea and moved to Kyiv in 2014, I can tell you that a preventive strike is the last thing people in Ukraine really want now. And that is exactly what Russia wants to provoke or stage if that fails. And I will have to decide (if l will have the time for that choice) if I am going to fight or run. The former is more "right" , but the latter might be more "practical". Just appreciate the fact that most of HN audience do not have to make that kind of choice.
  - etoya 5y ago
ivan_gammel 5y ago
>Russia is obviously preparing for a full-scale invasion. It was not obvious recently to German navy chief, it is not obvious to Ukrainian government and to plenty of other experts. All the evidence about "imminent attack" is fed to media by US government without sufficient proofs. Whatever are your sources, try to find more information.
- Isinlor 5y ago
  German navy chief did not say anything with regard to factual state at Ukrainian borders. Ukrainian government is not denying Russia buildup on their borders. They just say that Russia does not have enough troops for a full scale invasion. So, Russia is preparing, but is not yet ready for a full-scale invasion. But USA is indeed going too far in rhetoric if Ukraine is toning them down. Personally, I think there is 55% chance Russia is bluffing and intimidates Ukraine to dissuade them from thinking about taking back Donbas and Crimea. 45% chance that by end of March there will be land corridor from Russia to Crimea.
  - ivan_gammel 5y ago
    > German navy chief did not say anything with regard to factual state at Ukrainian borders. Indeed he did not. However he said that such invasion to annex more of Ukrainian territory does not make sense. In order to run a very expensive and widely unpopular military operation you do need a good motive, and this means that whatever is the purpose of the military buildup, invasion is not the goal. Russian military did not invade undisputed territories since War in Afghanistan and they now prefer hybrid wars or limited peacekeeping operations, rather than full scale invasions. They may provide some support to Donbas, but there is actually no point even investing in that. Minsk agreements are quite favorable to Russia, so it brings more value to persuade Germany and France that Ukraine needs more pressure to implement them. No, the real target of this buildup is NATO, playing Biden into signing new security treaties.
    - Isinlor 5y ago
      True, it does not make sense to invade Ukraine second time. And hopefully Russia will not invade. We will see. Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO due to disputed territories anyway. As a Pole, after full blown invasion on Ukraine, I would support increase in military spending beyond current goal of 2.5%. I also think that Sweden and Finland would join NATO relatively soon after invasion. After 2014 annexation of Crimea support for NATO grew there some 20-30%. Sweden is rattled enough to deploy symbolic military presence to Gotland. Joining NATO is part of political discussion in Finland, but they are on the edge. Russia would only lose on war with Ukraine.
deleted 5y ago
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vbezhenar 5y ago

Ukraine is preparing to attack Donbass. Of course Russia is gathering army to be ready to defend from Ukrainian forces if necessary.

Isinlor 5y ago
Yes, very possible. Ukraine wants Donbas and Crimea back. And they are not excluding use of force. This is also why Ukraine will not join NATO until they resolve their business with Russia.
dandanua 5y ago
Why would they want to reclaim Donbass and Crimea right now? They can easily wait until Russia collapses under the rule of a madman.
mike_k 5y ago
As someone born in Crimea and moved to Kyiv in 2014, I can tell you that a preventive strike is the last thing people in Ukraine really want now. And that is exactly what Russia wants to provoke or stage if that fails. And I will have to decide (if l will have the time for that choice) if I am going to fight or run. The former is more "right" , but the latter might be more "practical". Just appreciate the fact that most of HN audience do not have to make that kind of choice.
- etoya 5y ago

ivan_gammel 5y ago

>Russia is obviously preparing for a full-scale invasion. It was not obvious recently to German navy chief, it is not obvious to Ukrainian government and to plenty of other experts. All the evidence about "imminent attack" is fed to media by US government without sufficient proofs. Whatever are your sources, try to find more information.

Isinlor 5y ago
German navy chief did not say anything with regard to factual state at Ukrainian borders. Ukrainian government is not denying Russia buildup on their borders. They just say that Russia does not have enough troops for a full scale invasion. So, Russia is preparing, but is not yet ready for a full-scale invasion. But USA is indeed going too far in rhetoric if Ukraine is toning them down. Personally, I think there is 55% chance Russia is bluffing and intimidates Ukraine to dissuade them from thinking about taking back Donbas and Crimea. 45% chance that by end of March there will be land corridor from Russia to Crimea.
- ivan_gammel 5y ago
  > German navy chief did not say anything with regard to factual state at Ukrainian borders. Indeed he did not. However he said that such invasion to annex more of Ukrainian territory does not make sense. In order to run a very expensive and widely unpopular military operation you do need a good motive, and this means that whatever is the purpose of the military buildup, invasion is not the goal. Russian military did not invade undisputed territories since War in Afghanistan and they now prefer hybrid wars or limited peacekeeping operations, rather than full scale invasions. They may provide some support to Donbas, but there is actually no point even investing in that. Minsk agreements are quite favorable to Russia, so it brings more value to persuade Germany and France that Ukraine needs more pressure to implement them. No, the real target of this buildup is NATO, playing Biden into signing new security treaties.
  - Isinlor 5y ago
    True, it does not make sense to invade Ukraine second time. And hopefully Russia will not invade. We will see. Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO due to disputed territories anyway. As a Pole, after full blown invasion on Ukraine, I would support increase in military spending beyond current goal of 2.5%. I also think that Sweden and Finland would join NATO relatively soon after invasion. After 2014 annexation of Crimea support for NATO grew there some 20-30%. Sweden is rattled enough to deploy symbolic military presence to Gotland. Joining NATO is part of political discussion in Finland, but they are on the edge. Russia would only lose on war with Ukraine.

deleted 5y ago

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