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> but given that the average TCO of a car in the US is $950 a month FWIW, the average TCO of a car reflects what the average person can afford, not the minimum

> but given that the average TCO of a car in the US is $950 a month FWIW, the average TCO of a car reflects what the average person can afford, not the minimum. I’m also pretty skeptical of that figure because my brand new Tesla payment + insurance + electricity costs about that much. So (1) I don’t think the average car is as expensive as a brand new Tesla and (2) even for my Tesla, the monthly TCO will be far, far lower because the payments for the car would need to be amortized over its lifetime. I’m sure you’re probably saving money by cycling, but I don’t think it’s anywhere near $950/month unless I’m mathing wrong. Note also that rideshare, car rental, delivery services, etc also cut into your savings. Further, if the car is shared between several people (e.g., a family) switching to cycling + supplementary services might not make sense.

acdha 5y ago
> So (1) I don’t think the average car is as expensive as a brand new Tesla and (2) even for my Tesla, the monthly TCO will be far, far lower because the payments for the car would need to be amortized over its lifetime. These are somewhat contradictory: someone spending less upfront on an internal combustion engine will be paying considerably more for maintenance and fuel. It's also a bit of a challenge to talk about this since it's a distribution — the _average_ new car bought in the United States was $47,000 which is more than the Tesla Model 3's base price of $40k: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a38748092/new-car-average-sale-prices-47100/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a38748092/new-car-average-... The other big thing to remember is that taxes, insurance, parking, and tolls add up quickly. If you bought a Model 3 at $40k you're probably not getting the cheapest tier of insurance. Now, if we look at used cars it's cheaper but that's still $28k and since a used car is going to need more maintenance you're definitely looking at a substantial amount of money: https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-used-car-price-now-over-28000/ https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-used-car-price-now-over... In all cases, a lot of this is going to come down to where you live. In a city or area with high car theft rates, insurance is going to be steep even if you're a low-mileage driver and the cost of parking can easily hundreds of dollars a month. If you live and work in less dense suburb or rural area, you probably don't have to worry about paying much for parking but you're also almost certainly racking up the mileage.
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  > These are somewhat contradictory: someone spending less upfront on an internal combustion engine will be paying considerably more for maintenance and fuel. Yes, but the salient bit is that the average car isn’t brand new nor high end (my Model Y cost $62k). The payments and insurance for a mid-range used car will certainly be a lot lower, and the difference should more than make up for fuel and maintenance costs. > It's also a bit of a challenge to talk about this since it's a distribution — the _average_ new car bought in the United States was $47,000 which is more than the Tesla Model 3's base price of $40k: But the average car certainly isn’t a new car? > The other big thing to remember is that taxes, insurance, parking, and tolls add up quickly. I factored in insurance already, parking and tolls vary widely (most places these aren’t an issue) > Now, if we look at used cars it's cheaper but that's still $28k and since a used car is going to need more maintenance you're definitely looking at a substantial amount of money: That reflects the chip shortage. Per your own article, that figure is 42% higher than December 2019 ($20k). And again, this is the average cost, which reflects what the average car buyer can afford—it doesn’t indicate the entry level. > In a city or area with high car theft rates, insurance is going to be steep even if you're a low-mileage driver and the cost of parking can easily hundreds of dollars a month. I have name brand insurance in Chicago and my coverage (brand new, high end car) is only $130/month. Plenty of car theft here, and I haven’t bothered to cost-optimize my insurance yet. Agreed that parking, tolls, etc vary widely depending on where you live (certainly biking in the city is a much more practical choice than in a rural or exurban environment).
kibwen 5y ago
Indeed, back when I was required to own a car I paid as little as I could get away with; I bought used, I got the cheapest insurance, I deferred maintenance as long as possible (though that may arguably be more expensive in the long run), I minimized start/stop driving to save gas, I ignored parking meters and hoped for the best (a single $400 tow ultimately made that a losing strategy)... and as a result I my annual TCO was on the lower end. But rent wasn't that much lower (roughly half), and I'm still paying less in combined rent and transport costs overall. And the psychological cost of driving a beater is nonzero, too. Stereo broken? Guess I'll just drive in silence now. Some jagoff sideswipes me while I'm parked? Guess that door panel is just ruined now. The seat breaks so that it's permanently reclined? Guess I'll wedge a pillow behind my back and deal with it. > Note also that rideshare, car rental, delivery services, etc also cut into your savings. I actually get away without almost any of these. I only get rideshare to go to the airport, but that's only if my flight's outside of public transit hours. And public transit is only necessary if I can't walk or don't feel like riding my bike somewhere, which is rare. I don't need anything delivered, I've got a low-cost grocer a five-minute walk away, and a full supermarket a ten-minute walk away, and any speciality shops I may need are well within biking distance. YMMV, of course.
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  Personally I would spend $15k (ignoring the temporarily inflated prices of the used car market) on something like an old but gently-used Camry (say, 50k miles). If you can by as a cyclist, it means you probably don’t need to go far—10k mi/yr seems generous. Camries can get 300k miles pretty easily if they’re properly cared for, so you can probably get 25 years of service out of that car. $15k/25 years is $600/year. 10k miles at 30mpg (this is what my old Camry got) and $3/gallon is $1k/yr in gas. Insurance is probably $800/yr. Maintenance is probably ~$500/yr (this includes the occasional insurance deductible). So far we’re at about $240/month. Parking is going to vary widely depending on where you live—most places it’s free but in cities it can be expensive. The price of electricity is a quarter that of gasoline per mile (fuel being the largest expense), so I think this number will be a lot lower as EVs become more prominent. To be clear, I’m not arguing about your choice to cycle versus drive, I’m just running the figures for the low end of driving as I see them. > I actually get away without almost any of these. … YMMV of course Agreed. This will vary a lot from person to person.
dahart 5y ago
> I don’t think it’s anywhere near $950 unless I’m mathing wrong. I don’t know how you’re mathing but the AAA yearly TCO study mostly agrees with @kibwen. https://newsroom.aaa.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2021-YDC-Brochure-Live.pdf https://newsroom.aaa.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2021-YDC...
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  That study is looking at new cars, not the average US TCO.
  - dahart 5y ago
    Sure, but wasn’t your objection based on spreading out the car payment over the lifetime of the vehicle? That’s what the AAA study shows. Depreciation and maintenance and length of life factors are going to bring the differences between new cars and used cars close together. Some of the TCO costs don’t depend on new vs used (fuel, insurance, taxes & fees) Edmunds has a TCO calculator for used cars. https://www.edmunds.com/tco.html https://www.edmunds.com/tco.html It doesn’t seem that far off from AAA’s numbers for car models that are less than 10 years old (which is the majority of used car sales).
    - throwaway894345 5y ago
      > Sure, but wasn’t your objection based on spreading out the car payment over the lifetime of the vehicle? That’s what the AAA study shows. Depreciation is non-linear, so if you buy a used car your $/mile will be lower than buying new. Regarding that Edmunds calculator, I’m guessing it’s taking into consideration the chip-shortage-inflated cost of used cars (42% higher on average than 2019 figures).
      - dahart 5y ago
        Yes, depreciation is non-linear. Used car lifetimes are also shorter, so used car purchase expenditure averages out to a higher per year percent of the purchase price than with a new car. > 42% higher on average than 2019 figures Are you saying that your skepticism is justified now because you were right 3 years ago?
Hypocritelefty 5y ago

acdha 5y ago

> So (1) I don’t think the average car is as expensive as a brand new Tesla and (2) even for my Tesla, the monthly TCO will be far, far lower because the payments for the car would need to be amortized over its lifetime. These are somewhat contradictory: someone spending less upfront on an internal combustion engine will be paying considerably more for maintenance and fuel. It's also a bit of a challenge to talk about this since it's a distribution — the _average_ new car bought in the United States was $47,000 which is more than the Tesla Model 3's base price of $40k: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a38748092/new-car-average-sale-prices-47100/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a38748092/new-car-average-... The other big thing to remember is that taxes, insurance, parking, and tolls add up quickly. If you bought a Model 3 at $40k you're probably not getting the cheapest tier of insurance. Now, if we look at used cars it's cheaper but that's still $28k and since a used car is going to need more maintenance you're definitely looking at a substantial amount of money: https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-used-car-price-now-over-28000/ https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-used-car-price-now-over... In all cases, a lot of this is going to come down to where you live. In a city or area with high car theft rates, insurance is going to be steep even if you're a low-mileage driver and the cost of parking can easily hundreds of dollars a month. If you live and work in less dense suburb or rural area, you probably don't have to worry about paying much for parking but you're also almost certainly racking up the mileage.

throwaway894345 5y ago
> These are somewhat contradictory: someone spending less upfront on an internal combustion engine will be paying considerably more for maintenance and fuel. Yes, but the salient bit is that the average car isn’t brand new nor high end (my Model Y cost $62k). The payments and insurance for a mid-range used car will certainly be a lot lower, and the difference should more than make up for fuel and maintenance costs. > It's also a bit of a challenge to talk about this since it's a distribution — the _average_ new car bought in the United States was $47,000 which is more than the Tesla Model 3's base price of $40k: But the average car certainly isn’t a new car? > The other big thing to remember is that taxes, insurance, parking, and tolls add up quickly. I factored in insurance already, parking and tolls vary widely (most places these aren’t an issue) > Now, if we look at used cars it's cheaper but that's still $28k and since a used car is going to need more maintenance you're definitely looking at a substantial amount of money: That reflects the chip shortage. Per your own article, that figure is 42% higher than December 2019 ($20k). And again, this is the average cost, which reflects what the average car buyer can afford—it doesn’t indicate the entry level. > In a city or area with high car theft rates, insurance is going to be steep even if you're a low-mileage driver and the cost of parking can easily hundreds of dollars a month. I have name brand insurance in Chicago and my coverage (brand new, high end car) is only $130/month. Plenty of car theft here, and I haven’t bothered to cost-optimize my insurance yet. Agreed that parking, tolls, etc vary widely depending on where you live (certainly biking in the city is a much more practical choice than in a rural or exurban environment).

kibwen 5y ago

Indeed, back when I was required to own a car I paid as little as I could get away with; I bought used, I got the cheapest insurance, I deferred maintenance as long as possible (though that may arguably be more expensive in the long run), I minimized start/stop driving to save gas, I ignored parking meters and hoped for the best (a single $400 tow ultimately made that a losing strategy)... and as a result I my annual TCO was on the lower end. But rent wasn't that much lower (roughly half), and I'm still paying less in combined rent and transport costs overall. And the psychological cost of driving a beater is nonzero, too. Stereo broken? Guess I'll just drive in silence now. Some jagoff sideswipes me while I'm parked? Guess that door panel is just ruined now. The seat breaks so that it's permanently reclined? Guess I'll wedge a pillow behind my back and deal with it. > Note also that rideshare, car rental, delivery services, etc also cut into your savings. I actually get away without almost any of these. I only get rideshare to go to the airport, but that's only if my flight's outside of public transit hours. And public transit is only necessary if I can't walk or don't feel like riding my bike somewhere, which is rare. I don't need anything delivered, I've got a low-cost grocer a five-minute walk away, and a full supermarket a ten-minute walk away, and any speciality shops I may need are well within biking distance. YMMV, of course.

throwaway894345 5y ago
Personally I would spend $15k (ignoring the temporarily inflated prices of the used car market) on something like an old but gently-used Camry (say, 50k miles). If you can by as a cyclist, it means you probably don’t need to go far—10k mi/yr seems generous. Camries can get 300k miles pretty easily if they’re properly cared for, so you can probably get 25 years of service out of that car. $15k/25 years is $600/year. 10k miles at 30mpg (this is what my old Camry got) and $3/gallon is $1k/yr in gas. Insurance is probably $800/yr. Maintenance is probably ~$500/yr (this includes the occasional insurance deductible). So far we’re at about $240/month. Parking is going to vary widely depending on where you live—most places it’s free but in cities it can be expensive. The price of electricity is a quarter that of gasoline per mile (fuel being the largest expense), so I think this number will be a lot lower as EVs become more prominent. To be clear, I’m not arguing about your choice to cycle versus drive, I’m just running the figures for the low end of driving as I see them. > I actually get away without almost any of these. … YMMV of course Agreed. This will vary a lot from person to person.

dahart 5y ago

> I don’t think it’s anywhere near $950 unless I’m mathing wrong. I don’t know how you’re mathing but the AAA yearly TCO study mostly agrees with @kibwen. https://newsroom.aaa.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2021-YDC-Brochure-Live.pdf https://newsroom.aaa.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2021-YDC...

throwaway894345 5y ago
That study is looking at new cars, not the average US TCO.
- dahart 5y ago
  Sure, but wasn’t your objection based on spreading out the car payment over the lifetime of the vehicle? That’s what the AAA study shows. Depreciation and maintenance and length of life factors are going to bring the differences between new cars and used cars close together. Some of the TCO costs don’t depend on new vs used (fuel, insurance, taxes & fees) Edmunds has a TCO calculator for used cars. https://www.edmunds.com/tco.html https://www.edmunds.com/tco.html It doesn’t seem that far off from AAA’s numbers for car models that are less than 10 years old (which is the majority of used car sales).
  - throwaway894345 5y ago
    > Sure, but wasn’t your objection based on spreading out the car payment over the lifetime of the vehicle? That’s what the AAA study shows. Depreciation is non-linear, so if you buy a used car your $/mile will be lower than buying new. Regarding that Edmunds calculator, I’m guessing it’s taking into consideration the chip-shortage-inflated cost of used cars (42% higher on average than 2019 figures).
    - dahart 5y ago
      Yes, depreciation is non-linear. Used car lifetimes are also shorter, so used car purchase expenditure averages out to a higher per year percent of the purchase price than with a new car. > 42% higher on average than 2019 figures Are you saying that your skepticism is justified now because you were right 3 years ago?

Hypocritelefty 5y ago