I think the US intelligence is correct. Russia is actively crating false flag causes, getting ready to war. They have even blood supplies, and riot control for

I think the US intelligence is correct. Russia is actively crating false flag causes, getting ready to war. They have even blood supplies, and riot control for occupation arriving. At the same time I think the decision is to attack is not made and probability of large scale attack is maybe 10-30%. President of Ukraine and their defense minister think similarly. If Russia botches the attack, or resistance and partisan warfare is worse than anticipated, and Russian military is humiliated. The easiest way for authoritarian leader to be toppled is if they screw up war and humiliated military leadership is not sitting idly taking blame.