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I'm definitely no expert. But it feels to me that Russia really does not want to invade Ukraine. This feels like a bluff. It's been going on too long and has

by timmg 5y ago

I'm definitely no expert. But it feels to me that Russia really does not want to invade Ukraine. This feels like a bluff. It's been going on too long and has been too telegraphed. I worry that the West "calling this bluff" will force Putin into doing something he doesn't really want to do, though. Maybe there will be a "minor incursion" then some kind of "agreement" so everyone can save face?

hh3k0 5y ago
It's not a bluff if you are prepared to go through with it.
lostmsu 5y ago
You mean further invade Ukraine? They are already approximately 2.5 states (of 24) inside it.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> But it feels to me that Russia really does not want to invade Ukraine. Then they should probably stop invading and occupying Ukraine. Or do you mean that they have succeeded in convincing you that they don't really want to invade more of Ukraine? Maybe, I mean, they might well not want to do that right now if they can instead use the threat of doing so as leverage to get a firm commitment from NATO not to protect Ukraine in the future and to withdraw from other places in Eastern Europe, effectively committing to recognize Russia’s Greater East Europe Co-Prosperity Sphere. That would be the bigger win than anything they could get by an immediate further invasion.
alkonaut 5y ago
Of course they don’t. They want to reach their strategic goals with minimum cost of course. But right now it looks like they have actually lost on the strategic side with NATO expansion accelerated by at least a decade in Sweden/Finland and post Cold War readiness being brought back to Europe at a pace that you wouldn’t have believed a couple of years ago. So the threat hasn’t exactly paid off yet, and what’s worse, they might have painted themselves into a corner where open conflict is the least bad option, at least if Putin wants to save his strong man face (not that the Russian public wants the war despite endless propaganda in every news outlet). Perhaps Putin can accept the de facto re-incorporation of Belarus into Russia that took place last week in plain sight as a win and be happy with that.

by timmg 5y ago

hh3k0 5y ago

It's not a bluff if you are prepared to go through with it.

lostmsu 5y ago

You mean further invade Ukraine? They are already approximately 2.5 states (of 24) inside it.

dragonwriter 5y ago

> But it feels to me that Russia really does not want to invade Ukraine. Then they should probably stop invading and occupying Ukraine. Or do you mean that they have succeeded in convincing you that they don't really want to invade more of Ukraine? Maybe, I mean, they might well not want to do that right now if they can instead use the threat of doing so as leverage to get a firm commitment from NATO not to protect Ukraine in the future and to withdraw from other places in Eastern Europe, effectively committing to recognize Russia’s Greater East Europe Co-Prosperity Sphere. That would be the bigger win than anything they could get by an immediate further invasion.

alkonaut 5y ago

Of course they don’t. They want to reach their strategic goals with minimum cost of course. But right now it looks like they have actually lost on the strategic side with NATO expansion accelerated by at least a decade in Sweden/Finland and post Cold War readiness being brought back to Europe at a pace that you wouldn’t have believed a couple of years ago. So the threat hasn’t exactly paid off yet, and what’s worse, they might have painted themselves into a corner where open conflict is the least bad option, at least if Putin wants to save his strong man face (not that the Russian public wants the war despite endless propaganda in every news outlet). Perhaps Putin can accept the de facto re-incorporation of Belarus into Russia that took place last week in plain sight as a win and be happy with that.