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These people are playing dangerous games with millions of lives potentially at stake and economies at the precipice of collapse. At last since the Iraq war the

by mc32 5y ago

These people are playing dangerous games with millions of lives potentially at stake and economies at the precipice of collapse. At last since the Iraq war the intelligence services really lost any independent credibility they had during the Cold War. It’s the boy who cried wolf once too many times. Maybe they’re right, but just as likely they are making it up for realpolitik or worse domestic politics.

SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
> but just as likely they are making it up for realpolitik or worse domestic politics. Are you talking about US or Russian intelligence services here? As it could easily apply to both.
- mc32 5y ago
  Yes.
- vintermann 5y ago
  Sure the Russian intelligence services are untrustworthy, but they're not the ones demanding to be blindly trusted this time around.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
    Are the US intelligence "demanding to be blindly trusted" ? Or - hypothetically - if the US intelligence is only 80% reliable - isn't it still worth signalling to their Russian counterparts that "we see you, don't try it" ? That might be the real intended audience. Isn't this also a fairly plausible accusation about Russia, given previous operations, e.g. "little green men" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_green_men_(Russo-Ukrainian_War) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_green_men_(Russo-Ukrain... and apartment bombings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings
    - another_why 5y ago
      > Or - hypothetically - if the US intelligence is only 80% reliable - isn't it still worth signalling to their Russian counterparts that "we see you, don't try it" ? That might be the real intended audience. They've got phones and meetings for that. it's 2023, everyone is fully aware what, where and how things are happening. What they do is bargain on who gets what, all things considered.
      - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
        > They've got phones and meetings for that Yeah, I take your point. The idea behind putting the possibility of Russian fake news into the public view is more likely ... well, putting it into the _public_ view. Because such fake news is an attempt to change public opinion.
    - vintermann 5y ago
      > Are the US intelligence "demanding to be blindly trusted" ? They totally are. They were downright shocked that AP's Matt Lee didn't just go along with it. The question is not whether Russia would ever do such a thing. The question is if the USG actually has evidence that they plan to do such a thing. One particularly ugly thing Russia did in Syria, was send out warnings that "the rebels are planning a false flag attack" to give Syria cover for actual attacks they were making. That illustrates that Russia is untrustworthy, sure, but we already knew that. However, it also illustrates how worthless unsubstantiated claims of forthcoming false flag attacks are.
beebmam 5y ago
Why should people give benefit of the doubt to the country with 150k troops, full equipment, tanks, & blood plasma, and surrounding Ukraine with them? They could easily attack Ukraine within hours
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- vintermann 5y ago
  We should give them the benefit of doubt about this particular accusation because the people accusing them 1. Have not presented evidence, merely asserted something and demand to be trusted 2. Have a long history of lying, and clearly feel they are entitled to lie to you when they feel it's useful. There are plenty of times you should not give the Russian government the benefit of doubt, but it's the other side which is making a positive assertion here.
- phkahler 5y ago
  The parent poster was talking about US intelligence. We should not believe them since they fabricated the whole WMD nonsense as a reason to start war in Iraq. Nobody is giving the benefit of the doubt to Russia here, as they haven't said anything. Given the situation, I dont see much reason for a pretext on Russias part. They will either pull the trigger on this thing or not. At this point vlad would probably feel weak if he backed down, so things are kind of stuck.
  - clarge1120 5y ago
    Vlad could also just do nothing until the midterm elections in the US while opposition politicians hammer the White House over the fact that there are American soldiers sitting in Ukraine and Russia hasn’t even done anything.
- satori99 5y ago
  > They could easily attack Ukraine within hours. I think it's unlikely Putin will humiliate China by attacking while The Winter Games are on.
BLanen 5y ago
> At last since the Iraq war the intelligence services really lost any independent credibility they had during the Cold War. The interesting thing is that the CIA actually disagreed with the Iraq WMD "evidence".

by mc32 5y ago

SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago

> but just as likely they are making it up for realpolitik or worse domestic politics. Are you talking about US or Russian intelligence services here? As it could easily apply to both.

mc32 5y ago
Yes.
vintermann 5y ago
Sure the Russian intelligence services are untrustworthy, but they're not the ones demanding to be blindly trusted this time around.
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  Are the US intelligence "demanding to be blindly trusted" ? Or - hypothetically - if the US intelligence is only 80% reliable - isn't it still worth signalling to their Russian counterparts that "we see you, don't try it" ? That might be the real intended audience. Isn't this also a fairly plausible accusation about Russia, given previous operations, e.g. "little green men" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_green_men_(Russo-Ukrainian_War) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_green_men_(Russo-Ukrain... and apartment bombings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings
  - another_why 5y ago
    > Or - hypothetically - if the US intelligence is only 80% reliable - isn't it still worth signalling to their Russian counterparts that "we see you, don't try it" ? That might be the real intended audience. They've got phones and meetings for that. it's 2023, everyone is fully aware what, where and how things are happening. What they do is bargain on who gets what, all things considered.
    - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
      > They've got phones and meetings for that Yeah, I take your point. The idea behind putting the possibility of Russian fake news into the public view is more likely ... well, putting it into the _public_ view. Because such fake news is an attempt to change public opinion.
  - vintermann 5y ago
    > Are the US intelligence "demanding to be blindly trusted" ? They totally are. They were downright shocked that AP's Matt Lee didn't just go along with it. The question is not whether Russia would ever do such a thing. The question is if the USG actually has evidence that they plan to do such a thing. One particularly ugly thing Russia did in Syria, was send out warnings that "the rebels are planning a false flag attack" to give Syria cover for actual attacks they were making. That illustrates that Russia is untrustworthy, sure, but we already knew that. However, it also illustrates how worthless unsubstantiated claims of forthcoming false flag attacks are.

beebmam 5y ago

Why should people give benefit of the doubt to the country with 150k troops, full equipment, tanks, & blood plasma, and surrounding Ukraine with them? They could easily attack Ukraine within hours

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
vintermann 5y ago
We should give them the benefit of doubt about this particular accusation because the people accusing them 1. Have not presented evidence, merely asserted something and demand to be trusted 2. Have a long history of lying, and clearly feel they are entitled to lie to you when they feel it's useful. There are plenty of times you should not give the Russian government the benefit of doubt, but it's the other side which is making a positive assertion here.
phkahler 5y ago
The parent poster was talking about US intelligence. We should not believe them since they fabricated the whole WMD nonsense as a reason to start war in Iraq. Nobody is giving the benefit of the doubt to Russia here, as they haven't said anything. Given the situation, I dont see much reason for a pretext on Russias part. They will either pull the trigger on this thing or not. At this point vlad would probably feel weak if he backed down, so things are kind of stuck.
- clarge1120 5y ago
  Vlad could also just do nothing until the midterm elections in the US while opposition politicians hammer the White House over the fact that there are American soldiers sitting in Ukraine and Russia hasn’t even done anything.
satori99 5y ago
> They could easily attack Ukraine within hours. I think it's unlikely Putin will humiliate China by attacking while The Winter Games are on.

BLanen 5y ago

> At last since the Iraq war the intelligence services really lost any independent credibility they had during the Cold War. The interesting thing is that the CIA actually disagreed with the Iraq WMD "evidence".