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The post that you replied to is about the spread of the virus. Your reply is about "hospitalization and severe side effects, including death". It is common kno

by ls15 5y ago

The post that you replied to is about the spread of the virus. Your reply is about "hospitalization and severe side effects, including death". It is common knowledge by now, January 2022, that SARS-CoV-2 vaccines do not prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2. A tripple-vaccinated person can infect other people. I was infected by a tripple-vaccinated person and I was vaccinated as well. We both still live, so maybe the vaccines did something to prevent hospitalization and severe side effects, including death. How is preventing hospitalization and severe side effects, including death relevant from an airline perspective? Obviously they need to do their best to prevent spreading of the virus, but if they start mandating things that have almost no impact on that, such as the vaccines, they are overstepping boundaries.

mpweiher 5y ago
Vaccines have never "prevented" transmission absolutely, so 100%. They have always "prevented" transmission in some cases, so reducing transmission. At slightly lower rates than preventing severe outcomes. Delta was 2x more transmissible than the first strain of Covid. Omicron appears to be around 4x more transmissible than delta, so 8x more transmissible than the original variant. Even if the vaccines had been 90% effective at reducing transmission and was just as effective against Omicron, we would expect Omicron to spread in a fully vaccinated/boostered population just as quickly as the original variant spread in a completely unvaccinated population. However, the vaccines were not 90% effective at preventing transmission of the original variant, more like 60-80% IIRC. And Omicron has mutated significantly, so effectiveness is further reduced. And of course there is a significant percentage of unvaccinated (partly due to "the vaccines don't work misinformation, sigh!), and the virus has a much easier time going from unvaccinated → vaccinated or vaccinated → unvaccinated than it does going from vaccinated → vaccinated. So seeing high(er) transmission rates right now in no way "proves" that the "vaccines don't work at preventing transmission". Neither do anecdotes that do not contradict the actual evidence. Transmission rates would be a lot higher without vaccines.
- ls15 5y ago
  > However, the vaccines were not 90% effective at preventing transmission of the original variant, more like 60-80% IIRC. And Omicron has mutated significantly, so effectiveness is further reduced. And of course there is a significant percentage of unvaccinated (partly due to "the vaccines don't work misinformation, sigh!), and the virus has a much easier time going from unvaccinated → vaccinated or vaccinated → unvaccinated than it does going from vaccinated → vaccinated. Now Omicron is dominant and these earlier strains are not relevant anymore. It is reasonable to expect that the virus will mutate more and faster, maybe even with many different strains that are relevant at the same time. > And of course there is a significant percentage of unvaccinated (partly due to "the vaccines don't work misinformation, sigh!) Most of Africa is unvaccinated, because they don't have the vaccine, while some countries are trying to enforce the third injection. > Transmission rates would be a lot higher without vaccines. That is not an argument for mandating vaccines when they only prevent the spread of the currently dominant strains with a very low probability or maybe even not at all. Actually I haven't heard of any good argument for that yet.
  - mpweiher 5y ago
    > Now Omicron is dominant and these earlier strains are not relevant anymore. Yes they are, when explaining why "it's spreading quickly now" does not imply that the vaccines aren't effective. They are. >> It is common knowledge by now, January 2022, that SARS-CoV-2 vaccines do not prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2. And when you stop spreading misinformation like this, I will stop correcting you. > Most of Africa is unvaccinated What relevance does this have to your false claim that the "vaccines do not prevent transmission"? > > Transmission rates would be a lot higher without vaccines. > That is not an argument for mandating vaccines You are right that it is not. Fortunately, that is not the reasoning for vaccine mandates, but just a rebuttal of your misinformation, such as: > they only prevent the spread of the currently dominant strains with a very low probability or maybe even not at all. No, they do not prevent spread at "very low" probability. Omicron is just much, much more contagious, so even with pretty high probability of prevention the rate of spread is high. This is why comparing with older variants is helpful with understanding the current situation. You are also making the mistake of thinking of the effectiveness as a completely independent variable. But it is not. Overall effectiveness rises as the vaccination rates increase, because vaccinated → vaccinated has a lower probability of transmission than vaccinated → unvaccinated or unvaccinated → vaccinated. And since Omicron is so much more transmissible than Delta, never mind Alpha, getting to a higher vaccination rate is more important than ever in achieving the desired societal outcomes. Furthermore, every sick person puts a stress on the health system. With Omicron being so incredibly contagious, the risk of overwhelming the health system rises, meaning that other people suffer when you become sick, even if you don't infect anyone. > Actually I haven't heard of any good argument for that yet. Then you're not paying attention.
alpaca128 5y ago
They do reduce the chance of transmission. Vaccinated people have a lower viral load when infected. And even if there was no difference it would still make sense to me. There's likely a large overlap between anti-vaxxers and people who don't like adhering to safety measures.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- ls15 5y ago
  https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-director-covid-vaccines-cant-prevent-transmission-anymore/ar-AASDndg https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-director-covid-... CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said that Covid-19 vaccines are no longer effective at preventing transmission of the virus. "...what they can’t do anymore is prevent transmission. So if you're going home to somebody who has not been vaccinated, somebody who can't get vaccinated... I would suggest you wear a mask in a public indoor setting,"

by ls15 5y ago

mpweiher 5y ago

Vaccines have never "prevented" transmission absolutely, so 100%. They have always "prevented" transmission in some cases, so reducing transmission. At slightly lower rates than preventing severe outcomes. Delta was 2x more transmissible than the first strain of Covid. Omicron appears to be around 4x more transmissible than delta, so 8x more transmissible than the original variant. Even if the vaccines had been 90% effective at reducing transmission and was just as effective against Omicron, we would expect Omicron to spread in a fully vaccinated/boostered population just as quickly as the original variant spread in a completely unvaccinated population. However, the vaccines were not 90% effective at preventing transmission of the original variant, more like 60-80% IIRC. And Omicron has mutated significantly, so effectiveness is further reduced. And of course there is a significant percentage of unvaccinated (partly due to "the vaccines don't work misinformation, sigh!), and the virus has a much easier time going from unvaccinated → vaccinated or vaccinated → unvaccinated than it does going from vaccinated → vaccinated. So seeing high(er) transmission rates right now in no way "proves" that the "vaccines don't work at preventing transmission". Neither do anecdotes that do not contradict the actual evidence. Transmission rates would be a lot higher without vaccines.

ls15 5y ago
> However, the vaccines were not 90% effective at preventing transmission of the original variant, more like 60-80% IIRC. And Omicron has mutated significantly, so effectiveness is further reduced. And of course there is a significant percentage of unvaccinated (partly due to "the vaccines don't work misinformation, sigh!), and the virus has a much easier time going from unvaccinated → vaccinated or vaccinated → unvaccinated than it does going from vaccinated → vaccinated. Now Omicron is dominant and these earlier strains are not relevant anymore. It is reasonable to expect that the virus will mutate more and faster, maybe even with many different strains that are relevant at the same time. > And of course there is a significant percentage of unvaccinated (partly due to "the vaccines don't work misinformation, sigh!) Most of Africa is unvaccinated, because they don't have the vaccine, while some countries are trying to enforce the third injection. > Transmission rates would be a lot higher without vaccines. That is not an argument for mandating vaccines when they only prevent the spread of the currently dominant strains with a very low probability or maybe even not at all. Actually I haven't heard of any good argument for that yet.
- mpweiher 5y ago
  > Now Omicron is dominant and these earlier strains are not relevant anymore. Yes they are, when explaining why "it's spreading quickly now" does not imply that the vaccines aren't effective. They are. >> It is common knowledge by now, January 2022, that SARS-CoV-2 vaccines do not prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2. And when you stop spreading misinformation like this, I will stop correcting you. > Most of Africa is unvaccinated What relevance does this have to your false claim that the "vaccines do not prevent transmission"? > > Transmission rates would be a lot higher without vaccines. > That is not an argument for mandating vaccines You are right that it is not. Fortunately, that is not the reasoning for vaccine mandates, but just a rebuttal of your misinformation, such as: > they only prevent the spread of the currently dominant strains with a very low probability or maybe even not at all. No, they do not prevent spread at "very low" probability. Omicron is just much, much more contagious, so even with pretty high probability of prevention the rate of spread is high. This is why comparing with older variants is helpful with understanding the current situation. You are also making the mistake of thinking of the effectiveness as a completely independent variable. But it is not. Overall effectiveness rises as the vaccination rates increase, because vaccinated → vaccinated has a lower probability of transmission than vaccinated → unvaccinated or unvaccinated → vaccinated. And since Omicron is so much more transmissible than Delta, never mind Alpha, getting to a higher vaccination rate is more important than ever in achieving the desired societal outcomes. Furthermore, every sick person puts a stress on the health system. With Omicron being so incredibly contagious, the risk of overwhelming the health system rises, meaning that other people suffer when you become sick, even if you don't infect anyone. > Actually I haven't heard of any good argument for that yet. Then you're not paying attention.

alpaca128 5y ago

They do reduce the chance of transmission. Vaccinated people have a lower viral load when infected. And even if there was no difference it would still make sense to me. There's likely a large overlap between anti-vaxxers and people who don't like adhering to safety measures.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
ls15 5y ago
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-director-covid-vaccines-cant-prevent-transmission-anymore/ar-AASDndg https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-director-covid-... CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said that Covid-19 vaccines are no longer effective at preventing transmission of the virus. "...what they can’t do anymore is prevent transmission. So if you're going home to somebody who has not been vaccinated, somebody who can't get vaccinated... I would suggest you wear a mask in a public indoor setting,"