A new strain, due to nature of exponential growth, can spend a long time before it noticeably moves the total number of cases and causes people to notice change

A new strain, due to nature of exponential growth, can spend a long time before it noticeably moves the total number of cases and causes people to notice change. Think about it this way: Year 1) 10.000 normal cases + 1 new = total 10.001 Year 2) 10.000 normal cases + 10 new = total 10.010 Year 3) 10.000 normal cases + 100 new = total 10.100 Year 4) 10.000 normal cases + 1.000 new = total 11.000 Year 5) 10.000 normal cases + 10.000 new = total 20.000 Year 6) 10.000 normal cases + 100.000 new = total 110.000 You see how for a long time, if you were looking at a total number of cases, nothing was happening and then it suddenly became absolute, unmitigated disaster? This is one of the unfortunate characteristics of exponential growth. If there is a new exponential growth that is masked by noise -- it could be very invisible for a long time and then suddenly become a huge problem. --- Edit: here another example with more realistic reproduction rate (2x annually and delay of 5 years before developing symptoms) Year 1) 10.000 existing steady state + 100 new = 10.000 with symptoms Year 2) 10.000 existing steady state + 200 new = 10.000 with symptoms Year 3) 10.000 existing steady state + 400 new = 10.000 with symptoms Year 4) 10.000 existing steady state + 800 new = 10.000 with symptoms Year 5) 10.000 existing steady state + 1.600 new = 10.000 with symptoms Year 6) 10.000 existing steady state + 3.200 new = 10.100 with symptoms Year 7) 10.000 existing steady state + 6.400 new = 10.200 with symptoms Year 8) 10.000 existing steady state + 13.000 new = 10.400 with symptoms Year 9) 10.000 existing steady state + 26.000 new = 10.800 with symptoms Year 10) 10.000 existing steady state + 51.000 new = 11.600 with symptoms Year 11) 10.000 existing steady state + 102.000 new = 13.200 with symptoms Year 12) 10.000 existing steady state + 204.000 new = 16.400 with symptoms You see, adding a delay to symptoms of exponential growth makes it even more heinous. Year 11 when a somebody that watches statistics of symptomatic patients might notice a rise is already when you have over 10x more new cases than the steady state you think that is happening. We could complicate this example (some cases get symptoms earlier than 5 years, etc.) but the basic reality is still the same -- when there is a noise and the signal is delayed, the moment you notice a rise in total number of cases and you suspect it being caused by an exponential growth, you should be worried that the reality is much, much, much worse.