3 ms·

It’s particularly interesting because the trend with HIV so far has been towards less damaging variants, not more. Fatality rates for HIV are almost at point wh

It’s particularly interesting because the trend with HIV so far has been towards less damaging variants, not more. Fatality rates for HIV are almost at point where there’s no longer any reduction in life expectancy, due to mix of better medicine, but also due to HIV evolving into less deadly strains. To see a reversal in this trend is extremely note-worthy, and somewhat worrying.

rmbyrro 5y ago
Maybe one or two observations should not make us jump to a conclusion of reversal in trend. Trends don't imply constant variability on each and every single observation...
enkid 5y ago
Do you have a source about HIV becoming less damaging? I haven't heard about that before.
HarryHirsch 5y ago
When making statement like this in a political environment like ours you should consider the facts that underpin this. With the great majority of people practicing safe sex, there's evolutionary pressure on the virus not to kill its host before a passionate slipup, which may well be 10 or 20 years. Also, there's very effective medication available. None of these facts is true for covid. There's no pressure at all for the virus to become less virulent, it's an airborne disease, and what medications are available are not particularly effective.
- lmilcin 5y ago
  Majority of people who practice safe sex do not affect HIV transmission. HIV transmits mostly through networks of people who do not practice safe sex. Unlike a normal virus where people exchange it at random, here people that are more likely to get the virus also seek out other people that are more likely to get the virus. Normal r-value calculations do not apply because you no longer have homogenous population. You do not need a lot of these people to keep the virus alive. A person that practices unsafe sex once is more likely to do it more than once, with other people who will do the same. In effect forming a network within general population. While people who practice safe sex might become collateral damage (like spouses of people who practice unsafe sex or patients at a clinic that used untested blood) they are very unlikely to transmit it further (safe sex practices are very effective at preventing spread of HIV). Also no need to bring politics to it. Viruses do not care about politics.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > HIV transmits mostly through networks of people who do not practice safe sex This is correct. Over two thirds of HIV cases around 2009 were transferred genitally; over 80% if one includes the intestinal tract (rectal) [1]. > Viruses do not care about politics But people do, and their behaviour influences how viruses like HIV spread. [1] http://perspectivesinmedicine.cshlp.org/content/2/11/a006965.full.pdf http://perspectivesinmedicine.cshlp.org/content/2/11/a006965...
mellavora 5y ago
> It’s particularly interesting because the trend with HIV so far has been towards less damaging variants, not more. False. HIV is as deadly as ever. > Fatality rates for HIV are almost at point where there’s no longer any reduction in life expectancy, due to mix of better medicine True. It is due to improved treatments, which are a mix of medicines (where the mix is designed to inhibit the development of resistance to the full cocktail)

rmbyrro 5y ago

Maybe one or two observations should not make us jump to a conclusion of reversal in trend. Trends don't imply constant variability on each and every single observation...

enkid 5y ago

Do you have a source about HIV becoming less damaging? I haven't heard about that before.

HarryHirsch 5y ago

When making statement like this in a political environment like ours you should consider the facts that underpin this. With the great majority of people practicing safe sex, there's evolutionary pressure on the virus not to kill its host before a passionate slipup, which may well be 10 or 20 years. Also, there's very effective medication available. None of these facts is true for covid. There's no pressure at all for the virus to become less virulent, it's an airborne disease, and what medications are available are not particularly effective.

lmilcin 5y ago
Majority of people who practice safe sex do not affect HIV transmission. HIV transmits mostly through networks of people who do not practice safe sex. Unlike a normal virus where people exchange it at random, here people that are more likely to get the virus also seek out other people that are more likely to get the virus. Normal r-value calculations do not apply because you no longer have homogenous population. You do not need a lot of these people to keep the virus alive. A person that practices unsafe sex once is more likely to do it more than once, with other people who will do the same. In effect forming a network within general population. While people who practice safe sex might become collateral damage (like spouses of people who practice unsafe sex or patients at a clinic that used untested blood) they are very unlikely to transmit it further (safe sex practices are very effective at preventing spread of HIV). Also no need to bring politics to it. Viruses do not care about politics.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > HIV transmits mostly through networks of people who do not practice safe sex This is correct. Over two thirds of HIV cases around 2009 were transferred genitally; over 80% if one includes the intestinal tract (rectal) [1]. > Viruses do not care about politics But people do, and their behaviour influences how viruses like HIV spread. [1] http://perspectivesinmedicine.cshlp.org/content/2/11/a006965.full.pdf http://perspectivesinmedicine.cshlp.org/content/2/11/a006965...

mellavora 5y ago

> It’s particularly interesting because the trend with HIV so far has been towards less damaging variants, not more. False. HIV is as deadly as ever. > Fatality rates for HIV are almost at point where there’s no longer any reduction in life expectancy, due to mix of better medicine True. It is due to improved treatments, which are a mix of medicines (where the mix is designed to inhibit the development of resistance to the full cocktail)