4 ms·

I can't see faith in politics returning in the UK unless the successor to Johnson gets very lucky. The trouble is, right now we're facing a major cost of living

by makomk 5y ago

I can't see faith in politics returning in the UK unless the successor to Johnson gets very lucky. The trouble is, right now we're facing a major cost of living and energy crisis that's the direct result of policies which had bipartisan support from the entire mainstream establishment, such as pushing for renweables in a way that actually just makes us highly dependent on natural gas whilst blocking any new natural gas sources in the UK or funded by the UK finance industry that could make up for the decline of the current ones, and trying to stop Covid without regard to the cost to the economy (which most people wrongly understood to just mean big corporations and the super-wealthy). Also, a lot of pressure on Johnson comes from the press and opposition claiming that any competent leader should be able to achieve things that are likely impossible and that no-one else in the Western world has, like solve the cost of living crisis, prevent large numbers of people from dying of Covid, and stop new Covid variants from coming into existence by vaccinating the world. It's amazing how many people falsely think the UK has the worst Covid deaths per capita in Europe rather than middle of the pack, just because all the headlines carefully cherry-pick whatever narrow figure makes the UK look worse. Then there's all the endless articles about how much other European countries are doing to protect people from high energy costs which mysteriously neglect to compare how much they're actually paying for power. And of course, the current vaccines can't stop new variants both because they don't stop Covid spreading nearly enough and because most of the unvaccinated global population already has natural immunity anyway, plus the UK doesn't have a pharmaceutical industry big enough to supply the world (we're not an empire anymore!) Any successor to Johnson will have expectations placed on them that they couldn't possibly live up to, which is probably why no-one is keen to try and take his place. There's also been a lot of attacks on the government lately for "wasting" money by buying more PPE than ended up being used in the end. Imagine trying to do any kind of emergency planning when the political climate is like that.

pasabagi 5y ago
> worst Covid deaths per capita I think the point is that the countries that have worse deaths-per-capita are poor (eastern european states), conspicuously dysfunctional (Belgium), or both dysfunctional and unlucky (Italy). The UK was positioned to do well (it's an island, has a national health service, very low vaccine hesitancy, had lots of warning), and yet did badly both on deaths and the economy. The story of the UK and covid was one of unforced errors, not of an impossible challenge. PS: probably most importantly, the UK has a relatively young population (median age 40, vs Italy at 46, Germany at 49, etc).
- makomk 5y ago
  One of those Eastern European states - the Czech Republic - was actually the big European success story everyone in the UK press pointed to as proof that the UK should've been able to do better if we had competent leaders. They ended up with the worst Covid deaths per capita in Europe until their neighbours overtook them, and yet I'm sure they still contribute to the belief the UK failed. In reality it seems like they were the ones who got lucky early on and had the chance to do well but failed to take advantage of that, with issues like poor vaccine uptake there. On the other hand, the cities which got hit next after Italy were New York and London, both of which had lots of travel from Milan due to Fashion Week right around the time there was massive undetected community spread there. That's definitely unlucky.
  - pasabagi 5y ago
    Well, that's the other thing: there was a time when the UK did have top-tier per-capita death rates, so that's where the idea came from that the UK was 'number one'. In regards to CR, you would expect the Czech republic to do worse than the UK. They have an older population, somewhat poor state, and a horrible vaccination rate (63%). The continuing perception also probably comes down to the personality of Boris Johnson. You can't go around shaking hands, calling it 'kung flu', party through the lockdowns, then expect people to see you as an ideal leader in an emergency situation.
    - unfocussed_mike 5y ago
      > Well, that's the other thing: there was a time when the UK did have top-tier per-capita death rates, so that's where the idea came from that the UK was 'number one'. I fully agree with this. > In regards to CR, you would expect the Czech republic to do worse than the UK. They have an older population, somewhat poor state, and a horrible vaccination rate (63%). But not this. The Czech Republic began to handle Covid badly before vaccination was even possible; it's not sensible to blame their low vaccination rates for their troubles. You only have to look at the speed with which things went wrong in Autumn 2020 (and the fact that their early autumn death rate peak was as bad as their mid-winter death rate peak, unlike most countries with mitigations in place) to see that their problem was fundamentally that they had failed to act politically in the quieter summer months; complacency is the issue. This was pretty widely reported-on in the media at the time; people were very surprised at how the mask-wearing success story had messed it up so badly. By that time even the UK was culturally better prepared for accepting restrictions; our autumn wave was considerably blunted by them.
darrenf 5y ago
> pushing for renweables in a way that actually just makes us highly dependent on natural gas whilst blocking any new natural gas sources in the UK or funded by the UK finance industry that could make up for the decline of the current ones Is there a decline in the amount of gas? "We" have been exporting vast amounts of natural gas, and over the past two years the amount has increased enormously - I say "we" in quotes because it's exported from the UK but not sold by the govt, rather it's not regulated so the private companies which extract it are free to sell to whoever they want. https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/blog/uk-exporting-gas-despite-energy-crisis https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/blog/uk-exporting-gas-despit... https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/01/31/how-did-the-uk-manage-to-double-gas-exports-amid-energy-crisis/ https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/01/31/how-did-the-uk-man...
notahacker 5y ago
On the contrary, Boris got considerable leeway from the public over the difficult decisions he had to make around COVID, both the stuff that was understandable but flawed like delaying certain decisions and the arbitrariness of some of the implementation to the decisions that were staggeringly inept (reopening schools for one day in January 2021, thereby maximising educational disruption and the opportunity for COVID spread) because his government got one big thing right (accelerated vaccination programme) and was more generous than people expected in providing benefits. Even now his government polls well in COVID handling. His Brexit deal which delivers few of the promises he made and even he insists needs renegotiating is popular with people that voted for Brexit too. The public would probably have shrugged off him seeing the cost of living crisis as a good time to push a flat tax (NI) increase were it not for the issue of lockdown parties he attended and continues to insist didn't break any rules because of the special nature of his home/workplace and staff: which ultimately is the exact same populist dynamic "the politicians think they're better than you" he rode to power. I agree it'll be hard for an immediate successor to recover in the polls, but it was populist anger at his personal behaviour (and related self-inflicted wounds like responding to his MP being censured by the committee that investigates Parliamentary standards by throwing out the committee) that saw him and his government nosedive in the polls in the days that immediately followed the revelations and his reaction, not the difficulty of navigating COVID for the last couple of years.
unfocussed_mike 5y ago
Most of the pressure on Johnson comes from a) the inevitable consequences of his utter, careless incompetence, fuelled by his psychopathic narcissism, b) the impotent rage of uninformed populists who were misled by his purely selfish, transactional, expedient choices (including his documented, arbitrary position on Brexit) and who are doubling down on the nonsense he sold them rather than kicking him to the kerb, c) and those of us in a broad left/right consensus who recognise a) and b), and who have been trying to tell those who do not for literally decades that this man belongs nowhere near power because he believes in nothing but himself and will lie to anyone to get power for himself. In other words: the pressure on Boris is all about the failings of Boris. One of the big questions I think people should begin to ask is: what if there is no successor to Boris in the sense of those who came before? What if whoever comes after him arrives in a system that bears little resemblance to the system in which, for example, Margaret Thatcher or even Tony Blair operated? What if the many outcomes of his inverse Midas Touch are so severe that Britain as a political entity ceases to exist and England becomes a corrupt, undemocratic state with a Prime Minister who comfortably operates independently of parliamentary scrutiny by default? Our system is failing very quickly, and the only people who can remove Boris Johnson from power are experiencing the exact same frog-boiling of their ethical codes that happened to the GOP. How many chances has he had? And does anyone telling us earnestly that he is on his last chance really believe it?

by makomk 5y ago

pasabagi 5y ago

> worst Covid deaths per capita I think the point is that the countries that have worse deaths-per-capita are poor (eastern european states), conspicuously dysfunctional (Belgium), or both dysfunctional and unlucky (Italy). The UK was positioned to do well (it's an island, has a national health service, very low vaccine hesitancy, had lots of warning), and yet did badly both on deaths and the economy. The story of the UK and covid was one of unforced errors, not of an impossible challenge. PS: probably most importantly, the UK has a relatively young population (median age 40, vs Italy at 46, Germany at 49, etc).

makomk 5y ago
One of those Eastern European states - the Czech Republic - was actually the big European success story everyone in the UK press pointed to as proof that the UK should've been able to do better if we had competent leaders. They ended up with the worst Covid deaths per capita in Europe until their neighbours overtook them, and yet I'm sure they still contribute to the belief the UK failed. In reality it seems like they were the ones who got lucky early on and had the chance to do well but failed to take advantage of that, with issues like poor vaccine uptake there. On the other hand, the cities which got hit next after Italy were New York and London, both of which had lots of travel from Milan due to Fashion Week right around the time there was massive undetected community spread there. That's definitely unlucky.
- pasabagi 5y ago
  Well, that's the other thing: there was a time when the UK did have top-tier per-capita death rates, so that's where the idea came from that the UK was 'number one'. In regards to CR, you would expect the Czech republic to do worse than the UK. They have an older population, somewhat poor state, and a horrible vaccination rate (63%). The continuing perception also probably comes down to the personality of Boris Johnson. You can't go around shaking hands, calling it 'kung flu', party through the lockdowns, then expect people to see you as an ideal leader in an emergency situation.
  - unfocussed_mike 5y ago
    > Well, that's the other thing: there was a time when the UK did have top-tier per-capita death rates, so that's where the idea came from that the UK was 'number one'. I fully agree with this. > In regards to CR, you would expect the Czech republic to do worse than the UK. They have an older population, somewhat poor state, and a horrible vaccination rate (63%). But not this. The Czech Republic began to handle Covid badly before vaccination was even possible; it's not sensible to blame their low vaccination rates for their troubles. You only have to look at the speed with which things went wrong in Autumn 2020 (and the fact that their early autumn death rate peak was as bad as their mid-winter death rate peak, unlike most countries with mitigations in place) to see that their problem was fundamentally that they had failed to act politically in the quieter summer months; complacency is the issue. This was pretty widely reported-on in the media at the time; people were very surprised at how the mask-wearing success story had messed it up so badly. By that time even the UK was culturally better prepared for accepting restrictions; our autumn wave was considerably blunted by them.

darrenf 5y ago

> pushing for renweables in a way that actually just makes us highly dependent on natural gas whilst blocking any new natural gas sources in the UK or funded by the UK finance industry that could make up for the decline of the current ones Is there a decline in the amount of gas? "We" have been exporting vast amounts of natural gas, and over the past two years the amount has increased enormously - I say "we" in quotes because it's exported from the UK but not sold by the govt, rather it's not regulated so the private companies which extract it are free to sell to whoever they want. https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/blog/uk-exporting-gas-despite-energy-crisis https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/blog/uk-exporting-gas-despit... https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/01/31/how-did-the-uk-manage-to-double-gas-exports-amid-energy-crisis/ https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/01/31/how-did-the-uk-man...

notahacker 5y ago

On the contrary, Boris got considerable leeway from the public over the difficult decisions he had to make around COVID, both the stuff that was understandable but flawed like delaying certain decisions and the arbitrariness of some of the implementation to the decisions that were staggeringly inept (reopening schools for one day in January 2021, thereby maximising educational disruption and the opportunity for COVID spread) because his government got one big thing right (accelerated vaccination programme) and was more generous than people expected in providing benefits. Even now his government polls well in COVID handling. His Brexit deal which delivers few of the promises he made and even he insists needs renegotiating is popular with people that voted for Brexit too. The public would probably have shrugged off him seeing the cost of living crisis as a good time to push a flat tax (NI) increase were it not for the issue of lockdown parties he attended and continues to insist didn't break any rules because of the special nature of his home/workplace and staff: which ultimately is the exact same populist dynamic "the politicians think they're better than you" he rode to power. I agree it'll be hard for an immediate successor to recover in the polls, but it was populist anger at his personal behaviour (and related self-inflicted wounds like responding to his MP being censured by the committee that investigates Parliamentary standards by throwing out the committee) that saw him and his government nosedive in the polls in the days that immediately followed the revelations and his reaction, not the difficulty of navigating COVID for the last couple of years.

unfocussed_mike 5y ago

Most of the pressure on Johnson comes from a) the inevitable consequences of his utter, careless incompetence, fuelled by his psychopathic narcissism, b) the impotent rage of uninformed populists who were misled by his purely selfish, transactional, expedient choices (including his documented, arbitrary position on Brexit) and who are doubling down on the nonsense he sold them rather than kicking him to the kerb, c) and those of us in a broad left/right consensus who recognise a) and b), and who have been trying to tell those who do not for literally decades that this man belongs nowhere near power because he believes in nothing but himself and will lie to anyone to get power for himself. In other words: the pressure on Boris is all about the failings of Boris. One of the big questions I think people should begin to ask is: what if there is no successor to Boris in the sense of those who came before? What if whoever comes after him arrives in a system that bears little resemblance to the system in which, for example, Margaret Thatcher or even Tony Blair operated? What if the many outcomes of his inverse Midas Touch are so severe that Britain as a political entity ceases to exist and England becomes a corrupt, undemocratic state with a Prime Minister who comfortably operates independently of parliamentary scrutiny by default? Our system is failing very quickly, and the only people who can remove Boris Johnson from power are experiencing the exact same frog-boiling of their ethical codes that happened to the GOP. How many chances has he had? And does anyone telling us earnestly that he is on his last chance really believe it?