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I guess the trades are very tightly coupled with the construction industry, which is very volatile, so there's always going to be labour over/undersupply proble

I guess the trades are very tightly coupled with the construction industry, which is very volatile, so there's always going to be labour over/undersupply problems. I personally wouldn't encourage people to think of the trades as a stable income, especially in Germany. A new technology (say, PVC pipes) can be extremely disruptive, and these technologies come out all the time, rendering entire skills and categories of skilled workers invalid as they enter the workplace. In Germany, techniques and materials are very archaic (flax for pipe-seals, etc) so I suspect there's even more risk of disruption there than elsewhere. The basic problem is that capitalism tends to replace skilled trades with unskilled ones - the classic example is the weavers put out of work by looms. As such, getting a stable income from a skill is always a risky proposition, even if it's the only game in town.

ChuckNorris89 5y ago
>I personally wouldn't encourage people to think of the trades as a stable income, especially in Germany. A new technology (say, PVC pipes) can be extremely disruptive, and these technologies come out all the time, rendering entire skills and categories of skilled workers invalid as they enter the workplace. Funny example you chose. How is that different than SW devs? Actually, I think tech makes you obsolete way faster if you don't actively keep up. What you get taught in university is mostly obsolete from what's hot in the filed by the time you join the labor market so it's mostly up to the workers to keep up with the latest trend if they want to be employed long term. I met way more unemployed old-aged former sys-admins and DBAs in Germany that couldn't find work because their obsolete skills weren't needed anymore in any private company who instead proffered to hire youngsters for the new tech or has offshored their jobs to a sweatshop callcenter in Eastern Europe, yet I have never met an older plumber who can't find work regardless of his grasp of new plumbing tech. In fact, the older the buildings are, the more maintenance they need, and the more archaic the technology they used is. It's a win for the gray beards. >In Germany, techniques and materials are very archaic (flax for pipe-seals, etc) so I suspect there's even more risk of disruption there than elsewhere. Knowing Germany, the archaic things are usually in most demand and Germany in generals is skeptical to new technologies and processes that do any disruption of the status quo. Like I said, the older the building, the higher the maintenance work they need, and the more archaic the plumbing is, the more value people familiar with the older tech have. I'm not saying plumbing is better than SW dev, I'm pointing out job security for those who aren't up to date on latest tech.

ChuckNorris89 5y ago

>I personally wouldn't encourage people to think of the trades as a stable income, especially in Germany. A new technology (say, PVC pipes) can be extremely disruptive, and these technologies come out all the time, rendering entire skills and categories of skilled workers invalid as they enter the workplace. Funny example you chose. How is that different than SW devs? Actually, I think tech makes you obsolete way faster if you don't actively keep up. What you get taught in university is mostly obsolete from what's hot in the filed by the time you join the labor market so it's mostly up to the workers to keep up with the latest trend if they want to be employed long term. I met way more unemployed old-aged former sys-admins and DBAs in Germany that couldn't find work because their obsolete skills weren't needed anymore in any private company who instead proffered to hire youngsters for the new tech or has offshored their jobs to a sweatshop callcenter in Eastern Europe, yet I have never met an older plumber who can't find work regardless of his grasp of new plumbing tech. In fact, the older the buildings are, the more maintenance they need, and the more archaic the technology they used is. It's a win for the gray beards. >In Germany, techniques and materials are very archaic (flax for pipe-seals, etc) so I suspect there's even more risk of disruption there than elsewhere. Knowing Germany, the archaic things are usually in most demand and Germany in generals is skeptical to new technologies and processes that do any disruption of the status quo. Like I said, the older the building, the higher the maintenance work they need, and the more archaic the plumbing is, the more value people familiar with the older tech have. I'm not saying plumbing is better than SW dev, I'm pointing out job security for those who aren't up to date on latest tech.