But that assumes X is not an unknown, which is kinda the point. "X-like" is an easy pill to swallow for people who want to reduce risk, since they already know

But that assumes X is not an unknown, which is kinda the point. "X-like" is an easy pill to swallow for people who want to reduce risk, since they already know X. If you just want to poke a stick at some lesser known Y, it's harder to appeal to those who want to understand potential returns on their investment. And it seems that there was a time that predictability, and even returns, was less of a priority. I can't recall the podcast (maybe Planet Money) but they mentioned Vannevar Bush pushing for the government to act as a patron for sciences, and to take on risk that private investors would avoid. Like, spend up to find a new X, then let the private sector step in and develop the X-likes.