5 ms·

>Yes, even the less effective vaccines help against serious symptoms, death, and the overwhelming of health services This is where you overstep. Israel, Portug

>Yes, even the less effective vaccines help against serious symptoms, death, and the overwhelming of health services This is where you overstep. Israel, Portugal and Australia all with 90%+ vaccination rates have their health care systems collapse, this simple fact is hidden by the fact that all 'optional' procedures, like say hip surgery, have been postponed for two years (and getting longer every day).

glenngillen 5y ago
I’d suggest you’ve also overstepped re “health care systems have collapsed”, especially as it pertains to the pandemic. Health care systems run close to capacity with wait times under even normal conditions. Western Australia has had almost negligible covid-related illness and yet it’s healthcare system is still in a precarious state re load. Victoria only announced a code brown and cancelling/rescheduling of elective surgeries a month ago. Meanwhile over the larger two year time horizon our system has apparently collapsed I’ve had a shoulder reconstruction and my wife has two separate surgeries on each of her hands. Our healthcare system is just a mess with unfortunate incentives around what is given priority. The pandemic is just a convenient cover for what is an extended period of under investment and a lack of resources. The same stories about delays in elective surgeries and people waiting years for hip replacements have themselves been central to the narrative even before the pandemic.
- thrown_22 5y ago
- ls15 5y ago
  > Health care systems run close to capacity with wait times under even normal conditions. You make that sound like a good idea. Shouldn't there be a buffer in the first place? How can a healthcare system cope with other cases of sudden influx of patients when there was no way to vaccinate against that, such as natural disasters?
  - hajile 5y ago
    US has 2.6 doctors per 1,000 people. Cuba has almost 6 doctors per 1,000 people (more than almost any 1st world country). These doctors are completely strapped for advanced medical equipment, but they have sufficient resources for preventative care. If Cuba's doctors saw 12 patients per day, they would see every person in the country every 2 weeks. This (plus reducing obesity) goes a long way toward solving the problem. Cuba has problems where advanced treatment is needed, but succeeds at catching disease early and encouraging people to solve lifestyle problems before they cause damage. The US needs to DOUBLE its medical doctor graduation rates just to keep up with countries like Austria. How does this happen? In the 50's, your doctor spent 1-2 years doing prerequisites then 4 years in medical school and 1 year of internship before setting up a general practice. Today, they need 4-5 years for their BS degree then 4 years of med school, then 1 year of internship, then 3 more years of family medicine residency. It takes 13 years just to be able to diagnose the sniffles or send you on to a specialist. Even a nurse practitioner takes 4-5 years for their BSN then another 3-4 years for their MSN which is still longer than the doctors people saw in times past. Despite this, patient outcome is virtually unchanged. This credential inflation costs valuable years that could be spent treating patients and accrues debt that is then passed along to patients as higher costs. Because insurance companies profit on a percentage of income, the magnify those costs even more. What happens if you change this back to how it was? Loads of doctors get mad because all their schooling becomes pointless. When supply doubles, their wages go down too. What do you do with all the nurse practitioners who have more education and experience than the doctors? The rest of the country would benefit, but the people most involved have more to lose and a much stronger reason to push for the status quo (not to mention much more money to spend in lobbying).
lern_too_spel 5y ago
Israel does not have anywhere close to 90%+ vaccination rate. They have a large subpopulation of refuseniks.
- thrown_22 5y ago
  If by that you mean that 24% of their population is under 12 and then redefined vaccination rate to include those who can't be vaccinated. Otherwise you are spreading misinformation. I'll hold my breath for someone to flag out right lies on here.
  - lern_too_spel 5y ago
    No, I mean that even in the above 60 cohort, Israel is not above 90% vaccinated. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-omicron-in-israel-unvaccinated-die-in-much-higher-numbers-1.10586137 https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-omicron-in-isra... Just over 58% of those eligible to be vaccinated in Israel are fully vaccinated by the Israeli definition, and 67% of those eligible to be vaccinated have received at least two doses. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/once-a-world-leader-israel-lags-behind-on-covid-vaccinations-1.10465031 https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/once-a-world-leader-isra... > I'll hold my breath for someone to flag out right lies on here. Feel free to flag your own comment if that's what you really want.
    - thrown_22 5y ago
      >Just over 58% of those eligible to be vaccinated in Israel are fully vaccinated by the Israeli definition, and 67% of those eligible to be vaccinated have received at least two doses. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/once-a-world-leader-isra https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/once-a-world-leader-isra... Which was changed to mean double boosted two weeks ago.
      - lern_too_spel 5y ago
        The meaning of "two doses" hasn't changed.
shaklee3 5y ago
Israel is only about 60% fully vaccinated.
- thrown_22 5y ago
  This is misinformation. Of the population that's eligible for vaccination 95% have had two shots.
  - shaklee3 5y ago
    no, it's a fact, and what you said is misleading. 2 shots is not considered fully vaccinated anymore, especially with a country who had the booster before anyone.
morsch 5y ago
That's hardly a contradiction. The vaccine may help prevent overwhelming health services (prolong the time until collapse, decrease the overall intensity of the collapse) but not be successful at it. Whether any given health care system collapses depends on the quality of the system itself, your definition of collapse, the vaccination rate, the makeup of the population, non pharmaceutical interventions in place, the season, and so on and and so on.
atleta 5y ago
GP never said vaccines prevent the collapse, they said they help, i.e. reduce deaths and the pressure on the health care system. Unfortunately they can't reduce it enough to prevent an overload. Yes, elective (i.e. 'optional') procedures have been postponed all around the world. Due to COVID putting an extra burden on the health care system. That's what you can decrease with vaccines... And if you want to figure out (i.e. measure) if vaccines help with this, or work in general, then it's not enough to look at just a binary endpoint: "did it collapse or not". But we have very detailed and very good quality data. We do know how much vaccines reduce the hospitalization rates. There's no need and no point arguing against it. Especially not in superficial comments. (Of course, everybody is welcome to publish their own data analysis if they think they can disprove what has been published before, but whoever doesn't do the said analysis should just stick with what has been published and listen to those who actually read those publications.)

glenngillen 5y ago

I’d suggest you’ve also overstepped re “health care systems have collapsed”, especially as it pertains to the pandemic. Health care systems run close to capacity with wait times under even normal conditions. Western Australia has had almost negligible covid-related illness and yet it’s healthcare system is still in a precarious state re load. Victoria only announced a code brown and cancelling/rescheduling of elective surgeries a month ago. Meanwhile over the larger two year time horizon our system has apparently collapsed I’ve had a shoulder reconstruction and my wife has two separate surgeries on each of her hands. Our healthcare system is just a mess with unfortunate incentives around what is given priority. The pandemic is just a convenient cover for what is an extended period of under investment and a lack of resources. The same stories about delays in elective surgeries and people waiting years for hip replacements have themselves been central to the narrative even before the pandemic.

thrown_22 5y ago
ls15 5y ago
> Health care systems run close to capacity with wait times under even normal conditions. You make that sound like a good idea. Shouldn't there be a buffer in the first place? How can a healthcare system cope with other cases of sudden influx of patients when there was no way to vaccinate against that, such as natural disasters?
- hajile 5y ago
  US has 2.6 doctors per 1,000 people. Cuba has almost 6 doctors per 1,000 people (more than almost any 1st world country). These doctors are completely strapped for advanced medical equipment, but they have sufficient resources for preventative care. If Cuba's doctors saw 12 patients per day, they would see every person in the country every 2 weeks. This (plus reducing obesity) goes a long way toward solving the problem. Cuba has problems where advanced treatment is needed, but succeeds at catching disease early and encouraging people to solve lifestyle problems before they cause damage. The US needs to DOUBLE its medical doctor graduation rates just to keep up with countries like Austria. How does this happen? In the 50's, your doctor spent 1-2 years doing prerequisites then 4 years in medical school and 1 year of internship before setting up a general practice. Today, they need 4-5 years for their BS degree then 4 years of med school, then 1 year of internship, then 3 more years of family medicine residency. It takes 13 years just to be able to diagnose the sniffles or send you on to a specialist. Even a nurse practitioner takes 4-5 years for their BSN then another 3-4 years for their MSN which is still longer than the doctors people saw in times past. Despite this, patient outcome is virtually unchanged. This credential inflation costs valuable years that could be spent treating patients and accrues debt that is then passed along to patients as higher costs. Because insurance companies profit on a percentage of income, the magnify those costs even more. What happens if you change this back to how it was? Loads of doctors get mad because all their schooling becomes pointless. When supply doubles, their wages go down too. What do you do with all the nurse practitioners who have more education and experience than the doctors? The rest of the country would benefit, but the people most involved have more to lose and a much stronger reason to push for the status quo (not to mention much more money to spend in lobbying).

lern_too_spel 5y ago

Israel does not have anywhere close to 90%+ vaccination rate. They have a large subpopulation of refuseniks.

thrown_22 5y ago
If by that you mean that 24% of their population is under 12 and then redefined vaccination rate to include those who can't be vaccinated. Otherwise you are spreading misinformation. I'll hold my breath for someone to flag out right lies on here.
- lern_too_spel 5y ago
  No, I mean that even in the above 60 cohort, Israel is not above 90% vaccinated. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-omicron-in-israel-unvaccinated-die-in-much-higher-numbers-1.10586137 https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-omicron-in-isra... Just over 58% of those eligible to be vaccinated in Israel are fully vaccinated by the Israeli definition, and 67% of those eligible to be vaccinated have received at least two doses. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/once-a-world-leader-israel-lags-behind-on-covid-vaccinations-1.10465031 https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/once-a-world-leader-isra... > I'll hold my breath for someone to flag out right lies on here. Feel free to flag your own comment if that's what you really want.
  - thrown_22 5y ago
    >Just over 58% of those eligible to be vaccinated in Israel are fully vaccinated by the Israeli definition, and 67% of those eligible to be vaccinated have received at least two doses. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/once-a-world-leader-isra https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/once-a-world-leader-isra... Which was changed to mean double boosted two weeks ago.
    - lern_too_spel 5y ago
      The meaning of "two doses" hasn't changed.

shaklee3 5y ago

Israel is only about 60% fully vaccinated.

thrown_22 5y ago
This is misinformation. Of the population that's eligible for vaccination 95% have had two shots.
- shaklee3 5y ago
  no, it's a fact, and what you said is misleading. 2 shots is not considered fully vaccinated anymore, especially with a country who had the booster before anyone.

morsch 5y ago

That's hardly a contradiction. The vaccine may help prevent overwhelming health services (prolong the time until collapse, decrease the overall intensity of the collapse) but not be successful at it. Whether any given health care system collapses depends on the quality of the system itself, your definition of collapse, the vaccination rate, the makeup of the population, non pharmaceutical interventions in place, the season, and so on and and so on.

atleta 5y ago

GP never said vaccines prevent the collapse, they said they help, i.e. reduce deaths and the pressure on the health care system. Unfortunately they can't reduce it enough to prevent an overload. Yes, elective (i.e. 'optional') procedures have been postponed all around the world. Due to COVID putting an extra burden on the health care system. That's what you can decrease with vaccines... And if you want to figure out (i.e. measure) if vaccines help with this, or work in general, then it's not enough to look at just a binary endpoint: "did it collapse or not". But we have very detailed and very good quality data. We do know how much vaccines reduce the hospitalization rates. There's no need and no point arguing against it. Especially not in superficial comments. (Of course, everybody is welcome to publish their own data analysis if they think they can disprove what has been published before, but whoever doesn't do the said analysis should just stick with what has been published and listen to those who actually read those publications.)