3 ms·

90% sounded high; I found an article saying as of today 79% of people in France have had both of the initial shots (not sure how they figure single-dose vaccine

90% sounded high; I found an article saying as of today 79% of people in France have had both of the initial shots (not sure how they figure single-dose vaccines like J&J and Oxford), and 80% had 1. [1] Let's say it's 80%. 80/20. Primary vax status probably hasn't changed too dramatically in 1 month. p(hospitalized | vaxxed) = p(vaxxed | hospitalized) * p(hospitalized) / p(vaxxed) = 0.6 * p(hospitalized) / 0.80 = 0.75 * p(hospitalized) --- p (hospitalized | unvaxxed) = p (unvaxxed | hospitalized) * p(hospitalized) / p(unvaxxed) = 0.4 * p(hospitalized) / 0.2 = 2 * p(hospitalized) Vaccination gives a 2.67x reduction in hospitalizations (against omicron which all the anti-vaxxers are saying the vaccines don't do anything against). With your 90% figure, it becomes 2/3 instead of 3/4 and 4 instead of 2, which is 6x, confirming what the other replier got. [1] https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/239732-vaccination-in-france-how-many-people-are-vaccinated-as-of-thursday-3-february-2022/lang/en https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/23973...

oezi 5y ago
In the most relevant age group 60+ the reduction in hospitalizations is 83% for double vaxxed and 95% for boostered in Germany according to latest figures: Page 28 on vaccine efficacy. https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Feb_2022/2022-02-03-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...
renaudg 5y ago
93% of the eligible have had two doses in France, or 78% of the population : https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/ https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/
- harshreality 5y ago
  Unless we can get stats for who's eligible or not eligible for the vaccine when they're hospitalized for COVID-19, what can be done with that extra distinction? Same with age and risk-factor cohorts. We could repeat the probability calculation for each cohort if we could collect those data, but it would probably make the vaccine even more effective: Presumably, more higher-risk people are double/triple/quad vaxxed at this point, so whatever rate they show up to the hospital is higher than what the average healthier person could expect.
oreilles 5y ago
We know that for a long time. I'm just saying that despite having 93% of the adult population vaccinated (-18 yo do not need the vaccine pass to go anywhere) , and our ICU beds occupation rate being only 70% at the highest omicron peak, our politicians still refuse to call it an end. "Being done" with covid is only a political decision, and no percentage appears to be high enough for them.

oezi 5y ago

In the most relevant age group 60+ the reduction in hospitalizations is 83% for double vaxxed and 95% for boostered in Germany according to latest figures: Page 28 on vaccine efficacy. https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Feb_2022/2022-02-03-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...

renaudg 5y ago

93% of the eligible have had two doses in France, or 78% of the population : https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/ https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/

harshreality 5y ago
Unless we can get stats for who's eligible or not eligible for the vaccine when they're hospitalized for COVID-19, what can be done with that extra distinction? Same with age and risk-factor cohorts. We could repeat the probability calculation for each cohort if we could collect those data, but it would probably make the vaccine even more effective: Presumably, more higher-risk people are double/triple/quad vaxxed at this point, so whatever rate they show up to the hospital is higher than what the average healthier person could expect.

oreilles 5y ago

We know that for a long time. I'm just saying that despite having 93% of the adult population vaccinated (-18 yo do not need the vaccine pass to go anywhere) , and our ICU beds occupation rate being only 70% at the highest omicron peak, our politicians still refuse to call it an end. "Being done" with covid is only a political decision, and no percentage appears to be high enough for them.