I think Australia and New Zealand are convincing counter-examples. It's not that lockdowns are ineffective, it's that half-arsed partial lockdowns ended before

I think Australia and New Zealand are convincing counter-examples. It's not that lockdowns are ineffective, it's that half-arsed partial lockdowns ended before elimination are ineffective. Before I hear the standard "but it's an island" argument: yes, Australia and New Zealand can shut down international travel with relative ease, but so can any sovereign nation. Even countries in Schengen have been managing their own border restrictions. The usual followup argument is "but there's so much trade and cross-border travel, it's impractical to shut it down". There's a counter to that in Australia too: the quarantine of Melbourne from the rest of the state. Travel into and out of Melbourne required a permit while the city was in lockdown and the permit was only granted for a limited set of reasons, like work, delivering goods, or medical care. Imagine quarantining LA from the rest of California, or London from the rest of England. That's what Australia did.