5 ms·

I disagree with your analysis. Yes, they bought great leadership with Carmack and Abrash, but what the R&D division of Facebook Reality Labs has been working on

by shafyy 5y ago

I disagree with your analysis. Yes, they bought great leadership with Carmack and Abrash, but what the R&D division of Facebook Reality Labs has been working on and also delivering into products (i.e. Quest 2) is amazing from a technological point of view. Sure, they have more resources and cash than Valve and can afford to sell it at cost, but still it's amazing technological innovation. I'm hopeing that Apple, Valve and hopefully totally new players can enter the VR/AR market and make better products than FB without selling out to them. My only realistic hope for a competitor to Quest 2 is Apple at the moment.

GekkePrutser 5y ago
Apple? They will never be a realistic competitor to Quest 2 on price. Apple is not in the business of selling below or at cost. They'll make great hardware but the price will keep it in the "well off consumer" range. Good for Apple because that's where the profits are but it won't make VR mainstream.
- ketzo 5y ago
  iPhones are great hardware, sold far above cost, that are very much mainstream and changed the shape of the entire product field. Apple's VR doesn't have to compete with the Quest on price if their product is that much better. Which, hey - it's Apple. They might be able to pull that off.
  - pantalaimon 5y ago
    VR is all about content, I don’t see how Apple could deliver there.
  - GekkePrutser 5y ago
    iPhones are mainstream and market leader in the US, yes. In every other region not so much. Here in Western Europe they are far from market leading, though still able to be considered 'mainstream'. But due to the inflation and lack of salary increases here since the 2007 crisis, most people go for midrangers now, and the iPhone SE is not attractive at all (old design, no oled screen). Just looking around on the subway I would see nothing but cheap Chinese phones now, most of the iPhones are from tourists.
- bin_bash 5y ago
  s/VR/Smartphones/g and you could've logically written this in 2006 when people thought $200 was an obscene amount to pay for a phone. I'm bullish on Oculus since I think they'll get the software and exclusives right (also I have one and I'm impressed by it) but I don't think Apple being an upmarket brand is going to slow them down at all.
  - GekkePrutser 5y ago
    Exactly, but $200 was a lot back then because the platform hadn't proven itself yet. Tthe first iPhone cost $499, and they even dropped the price of the $599 iPhone after a few months to $399, in a pretty unprecedented move by Apple. The price was clearly too high for a market that had not yet proven its value. VR is in the same situation as the modern smartphone was back then.
    - bin_bash 5y ago
      IMO it was the 3G iPhone that was the one that mattered and that was only $199 with contract. The original iPhone was like a weird alpha prototype. There was no reason not to get the contract at the time because AT&T was the only company you could use an iPhone on anyways
- shafyy 5y ago
  Obviously they will sell at a premium, but they will make it affordable for average people in developed countries, just like with the iPhone. If you look at the smartphone market today, other brands also position their flagship products in similar price ranges like the iPhone. And don't forget about the iPhone SE, which is a very good deal price/quality wise. For VR, I wouldn't be suprised if a lot of people would be ready to pay a premium just to have device that has feature-parity with the Quest 2 but is not owned by Facebook. You have to understand that so many people use the Quest 2, despite the fact that they hate Facebook (yours truly included).
  - GekkePrutser 5y ago
    But Apple's premium will probably be upwards of $1000 (I mean, seriously, do you really expect it to cost less? :) ). Meaning more than 3 times the price of the Quest 2! And this is for a product category that has not yet proven itself as indispensable in our daily lives, unlike the smartphone. I'm sure many Apple enthusiasts will buy one because it's shiny and from Apple but it will not be mainstream like that. I doubt people are willing to pay that much more just to avoid facebook (especially considering facebook is decoupling their logins again from the quest services). With current inflation rates (The EU is printing money by the billions per day) I do see a big gap in American (especially Silicon Valley) purchasing power and here in Western Europe. Whereas a few years ago I'd see only flagship phones in public transport, now it's a ton of redmi, budget samsungs etc. People don't have a lot of money anymore.
    - shafyy 5y ago
      > But Apple's premium will probably be upwards of $1000 Yes, for sure. And I think that's a part of the reason they haven't released a VR headset yet. Give it a few years (maybe 5?) and there will be enough entertainment value and other utlity from a headset, especially if the ergonomics get better, which they will.
  - lelanthran 5y ago
    > Obviously they will sell at a premium, but they will make it affordable for average people in developed countries, just like with the iPhone. There's a huge difference between selling a phone which is a status symbol and a VR set that has to have actual utility (entertainment, etc). People pay more for iPhones even in Africa because it's a status symbol - only the rich can afford them.
kranke155 5y ago
Pretty sure the Quest loses money, or it used to. It was way underpriced for what it offers. Carmack has also left Oculus, hasn’t he?
- arbitrary_name 5y ago
  No, he remains as an external advisor
- dbish 5y ago
  Carmack is still part time, which is like full time for mortals :)

by shafyy 5y ago

GekkePrutser 5y ago

Apple? They will never be a realistic competitor to Quest 2 on price. Apple is not in the business of selling below or at cost. They'll make great hardware but the price will keep it in the "well off consumer" range. Good for Apple because that's where the profits are but it won't make VR mainstream.

ketzo 5y ago
iPhones are great hardware, sold far above cost, that are very much mainstream and changed the shape of the entire product field. Apple's VR doesn't have to compete with the Quest on price if their product is that much better. Which, hey - it's Apple. They might be able to pull that off.
- pantalaimon 5y ago
  VR is all about content, I don’t see how Apple could deliver there.
- GekkePrutser 5y ago
  iPhones are mainstream and market leader in the US, yes. In every other region not so much. Here in Western Europe they are far from market leading, though still able to be considered 'mainstream'. But due to the inflation and lack of salary increases here since the 2007 crisis, most people go for midrangers now, and the iPhone SE is not attractive at all (old design, no oled screen). Just looking around on the subway I would see nothing but cheap Chinese phones now, most of the iPhones are from tourists.
bin_bash 5y ago
s/VR/Smartphones/g and you could've logically written this in 2006 when people thought $200 was an obscene amount to pay for a phone. I'm bullish on Oculus since I think they'll get the software and exclusives right (also I have one and I'm impressed by it) but I don't think Apple being an upmarket brand is going to slow them down at all.
- GekkePrutser 5y ago
  Exactly, but $200 was a lot back then because the platform hadn't proven itself yet. Tthe first iPhone cost $499, and they even dropped the price of the $599 iPhone after a few months to $399, in a pretty unprecedented move by Apple. The price was clearly too high for a market that had not yet proven its value. VR is in the same situation as the modern smartphone was back then.
  - bin_bash 5y ago
    IMO it was the 3G iPhone that was the one that mattered and that was only $199 with contract. The original iPhone was like a weird alpha prototype. There was no reason not to get the contract at the time because AT&T was the only company you could use an iPhone on anyways
shafyy 5y ago
Obviously they will sell at a premium, but they will make it affordable for average people in developed countries, just like with the iPhone. If you look at the smartphone market today, other brands also position their flagship products in similar price ranges like the iPhone. And don't forget about the iPhone SE, which is a very good deal price/quality wise. For VR, I wouldn't be suprised if a lot of people would be ready to pay a premium just to have device that has feature-parity with the Quest 2 but is not owned by Facebook. You have to understand that so many people use the Quest 2, despite the fact that they hate Facebook (yours truly included).
- GekkePrutser 5y ago
  But Apple's premium will probably be upwards of $1000 (I mean, seriously, do you really expect it to cost less? :) ). Meaning more than 3 times the price of the Quest 2! And this is for a product category that has not yet proven itself as indispensable in our daily lives, unlike the smartphone. I'm sure many Apple enthusiasts will buy one because it's shiny and from Apple but it will not be mainstream like that. I doubt people are willing to pay that much more just to avoid facebook (especially considering facebook is decoupling their logins again from the quest services). With current inflation rates (The EU is printing money by the billions per day) I do see a big gap in American (especially Silicon Valley) purchasing power and here in Western Europe. Whereas a few years ago I'd see only flagship phones in public transport, now it's a ton of redmi, budget samsungs etc. People don't have a lot of money anymore.
  - shafyy 5y ago
    > But Apple's premium will probably be upwards of $1000 Yes, for sure. And I think that's a part of the reason they haven't released a VR headset yet. Give it a few years (maybe 5?) and there will be enough entertainment value and other utlity from a headset, especially if the ergonomics get better, which they will.
- lelanthran 5y ago
  > Obviously they will sell at a premium, but they will make it affordable for average people in developed countries, just like with the iPhone. There's a huge difference between selling a phone which is a status symbol and a VR set that has to have actual utility (entertainment, etc). People pay more for iPhones even in Africa because it's a status symbol - only the rich can afford them.

kranke155 5y ago

Pretty sure the Quest loses money, or it used to. It was way underpriced for what it offers. Carmack has also left Oculus, hasn’t he?

arbitrary_name 5y ago
No, he remains as an external advisor
dbish 5y ago
Carmack is still part time, which is like full time for mortals :)