6 ms·

> … VR is a good play I find your analysis excellent apart from this bit. It’s really far from obvious to me that VR has any future outside a gaming niche.

by jl6 5y ago

antonioevans 5y ago
The timeline for consumer level glasses with ar + vr will begin shipping 2023. "Apple" level ones 2025. These devices will be as ubiquitious as the smartphone or earbuds.
- jl6 5y ago
  What are you thinking makes them consumer level? Just cheaper? Because price isn’t the main problem.
  - fastball 5y ago
    Bad take given how well the Oculus Quest 2 is selling. Primary improvements in OQ2 over previous headsets: Higher Quality + Lower Price + More Portable. Very easy for me to believe if you just keep improving in those areas you end up with a device that will be present in every lower-middle-class+ household.
    - wayoutthere 5y ago
      I have a valve index, one of the best VR headsets available. It sits in my closet and I haven’t touched it in over a year. VR is one of those things that’s really fun to use at your friend’s house, but not something you want to use daily.
      - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
        Because the Valve index is very expensive and needs to be tethered to an also expresive gaming PC via cumbersome cables plus the need to install the IR lighthouses in your living-room, and require maintenance of drivers and VR compatible SW(I was a PC gamer, I know). All this expense, physical installation work and general friction is a non-starter for most consumers and that's why yours sits on the shelf unused. The Quest(2) is not tethered but has the "gaming PC" built inside of it, no need to bolt lighthouses to your living room walls, and has the frictionless ecosystem polish of the PS/X-box. So it sits charging on my couch, always updating itself and the games in the background, and when I have 10 minutes of boredom during WFH, I can slip it on my head and will instantly resume the last game state I was on, no cables, no PC, no maintaining or curating drivers and SW, none of that stuff. Zero friction. And I can also put it in my backpack and take it to a friend's place instead of having the whole setup bolted to my living room. I also had work colleagues with gaming PCs buy the Index and return it in the 30 day window after getting bored of the nuisance of cables and SW, then buy a Quest 2 and keep it. The Quest absolutely killed the Index for the mainstream VR market and got Valve to move in the same direction.
        Melkman 5y ago
        That doesn't explain why someone who has an Index doesn't use it. The setup and expense is just one time. The updates are all automatic via Steam. It's just a matter of putting on the headset and go. And yet, just like @wayoutthere , I find myself using it less and less. Not because lack of content either. It's just so inconvenient and awkward to isolate yourself from the other people in vicinity. Plus you'll be moving your arms without regards of your physical environment. So basically you need a room with a 2 meter by 2 meter clear space and no other people available. Most people don't have that. I used the quest 2. Personally I was not impressed. Graphics are soft and simple compared to the Index and the field of view is so small. You can tether it to a PC for better graphics but then you loose the main advantage of not having a cable. And you still keep a small field of view.
        ChuckNorris89 5y ago
        >That doesn't explain why someone who has an Index doesn't use it. [...] It's just a matter of putting on the headset and go. It definitely is not (saying as a PC gamer for over 15 years). If you don't already use your gaming PC regularly for other stuff so that the whole loading, update and maintenance is part of the daily experience anyway, then, you first have to fire up the gaming PC, wait for it to load, login to Windows, then you might have Windows nagging you for an update, then maybe Nvidia gaming hub or whatever they're calling it nowadays nags you for an update, then maybe you have to reboot, then open the steam launcher, then maybe that also want some updates, then fire up the game, then you have to clear your surrounding environment to make room for the cable tether and make sure you don't trip on it, then put on the Index, then finally you can play. To most people that wohle ritual gets annoying and puts off the casual gamers who want a quick gaming session every now and then without dealing with any of that crap. The Quest is literally just put on and go since it's just like a console, which is also more popular for gaming than PCs for the convenience and the lack of friction.
        wayoutthere 5y ago
        That’s actually not my problem with it; my big problem with it is that the whole thing gives me a headache after about 15 minutes. And you can’t use your phone, have something on in the background, etc. Also basically every game was way easier to play outside VR. In my mind it’s a novelty you will be far more productive without.
- seniortaco 5y ago
  And perhaps as ubiquitous as Google Glass.
  - danielbln 5y ago
    A glorified heads-up display, neither AR nor VR, and well before its time.
- throwawayay02 5y ago
  Consumers do not want to wear glasses.
  - NoahRoseWood 5y ago
    I think they will wear them anyways
    - tazjin 5y ago
      This comment sums up the state of consumer tech so well. "Consumers don't want it, but they will use it anyways, because Apple/whoever said so"
      - throwaway473825 5y ago
        Not necessarily. Apple tried to push small phones (for various reasons). People refused, and Apple had to cave.
Melkman 5y ago
As much as I like VR I have to agree it will stay a niche product. The need to wear something on your head is a major hurdle. Like 3D TV's that have mostly disappeared. Also when you are in a VR environment you want to interact with it. You need free physical space to do that which is an other hurdle. There are more niches than gaming only though. Like education and product design and demonstration.
- citizenpaul 5y ago
  The main problem with 3D tv was the content. 3D really only works with bad movies like resident evil. You are not going to have need or want 3d in a movie that is an oscar contender. (Avatar as the single exception)
  - Melkman 5y ago
    Ehh, the content is the problem because there is a lack of bad content ? There's a heap of 3D content and growing. Like last years Marvell movies, James Bond, Dune. And movie theaters still show those in 3D. Which works because people go to a movie theater for the experience and donning 3D glasses is a minor annoyance with that mindset. Most people don't go to the movies very often. However people wanting to view a quick movie at home don't want that annoyance. It's a bit the same with VR I think. When you go to an arcade or a friends house the space is already available and you accept being isolated because it's expected. Going for a quick VR session at home is an anti social hassle (unless you got a dedicated VR room or live alone).
    - citizenpaul 5y ago
      I'm just saying that things flying out of the screen rarely add value to the movie. I had 3d tv and my only shows for it were some documentaries, Avatar, Paddington bear, and 3d adventure of tintin. 2 kids movies 1 animated movie some short but interesting documentaries. (horror movies runner up (mostly resident evil lol) Not exactly market crushing content.
  - alex504 5y ago
mettamage 5y ago
Note: it already has a health niche. Now that I think about it, one could create a startup in that space. The health niche will be expanding. I'd argue that Apple is excellently positioned for VR.
alexb_ 5y ago
The current attitude towards VR, and the "metaverse" in general, has got to be the second most delusional thing I have ever seen - due in no small part to the close integration with NFTs, the first most delusional obsession I've seen. It's complete and utter vaporware, with absolutely nothing behind it. I have done lots and lots of reading about the metaverse, what it promises, what it wants, and I still can't find a place where substituting the word "metaverse" with "cyberspace" doesn't create the same sentence. But everyone is afraid of missing out on the "next evolution of the internet" that all rational thought has gone out of the window. VR is not the future of anything besides the mentioned gaming niche.
- parkingrift 5y ago
  VR is the future of porn. I’m not convinced it’s the future of anything else. VR gaming sucks.
  - whitepaint 5y ago
    > VR gaming sucks. Someone who spends 1-2 hours a day using Oculus, I wholeheartedly disagree.
    - parkingrift 5y ago
      To each their own. The only game I ever had fun playing was beat saber. Everything else required way too much room.
      - scsilver 5y ago
        Google Earth and msfs are pretty fun.
  - alexb_ 5y ago
    VR gaming has potential that is not realized due to people sticking with game formats they know work. Innovative game design is going to be needed, but once it's here it will definitely have something else. And also yeah, VR porn. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Aix8NuU8pE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Aix8NuU8pE is relevant LOL.

> … VR is a good play I find your analysis excellent apart from this bit. It’s really far from obvious to me that VR has any future outside a gaming niche.

by jl6 5y ago

> … VR is a good play I find your analysis excellent apart from this bit. It’s really far from obvious to me that VR has any future outside a gaming niche.

antonioevans 5y ago

The timeline for consumer level glasses with ar + vr will begin shipping 2023. "Apple" level ones 2025. These devices will be as ubiquitious as the smartphone or earbuds.

jl6 5y ago
What are you thinking makes them consumer level? Just cheaper? Because price isn’t the main problem.
- fastball 5y ago
  Bad take given how well the Oculus Quest 2 is selling. Primary improvements in OQ2 over previous headsets: Higher Quality + Lower Price + More Portable. Very easy for me to believe if you just keep improving in those areas you end up with a device that will be present in every lower-middle-class+ household.
  - wayoutthere 5y ago
    I have a valve index, one of the best VR headsets available. It sits in my closet and I haven’t touched it in over a year. VR is one of those things that’s really fun to use at your friend’s house, but not something you want to use daily.
    - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
      Because the Valve index is very expensive and needs to be tethered to an also expresive gaming PC via cumbersome cables plus the need to install the IR lighthouses in your living-room, and require maintenance of drivers and VR compatible SW(I was a PC gamer, I know). All this expense, physical installation work and general friction is a non-starter for most consumers and that's why yours sits on the shelf unused. The Quest(2) is not tethered but has the "gaming PC" built inside of it, no need to bolt lighthouses to your living room walls, and has the frictionless ecosystem polish of the PS/X-box. So it sits charging on my couch, always updating itself and the games in the background, and when I have 10 minutes of boredom during WFH, I can slip it on my head and will instantly resume the last game state I was on, no cables, no PC, no maintaining or curating drivers and SW, none of that stuff. Zero friction. And I can also put it in my backpack and take it to a friend's place instead of having the whole setup bolted to my living room. I also had work colleagues with gaming PCs buy the Index and return it in the 30 day window after getting bored of the nuisance of cables and SW, then buy a Quest 2 and keep it. The Quest absolutely killed the Index for the mainstream VR market and got Valve to move in the same direction.
      - Melkman 5y ago
        That doesn't explain why someone who has an Index doesn't use it. The setup and expense is just one time. The updates are all automatic via Steam. It's just a matter of putting on the headset and go. And yet, just like @wayoutthere , I find myself using it less and less. Not because lack of content either. It's just so inconvenient and awkward to isolate yourself from the other people in vicinity. Plus you'll be moving your arms without regards of your physical environment. So basically you need a room with a 2 meter by 2 meter clear space and no other people available. Most people don't have that. I used the quest 2. Personally I was not impressed. Graphics are soft and simple compared to the Index and the field of view is so small. You can tether it to a PC for better graphics but then you loose the main advantage of not having a cable. And you still keep a small field of view.
        ChuckNorris89 5y ago
        >That doesn't explain why someone who has an Index doesn't use it. [...] It's just a matter of putting on the headset and go. It definitely is not (saying as a PC gamer for over 15 years). If you don't already use your gaming PC regularly for other stuff so that the whole loading, update and maintenance is part of the daily experience anyway, then, you first have to fire up the gaming PC, wait for it to load, login to Windows, then you might have Windows nagging you for an update, then maybe Nvidia gaming hub or whatever they're calling it nowadays nags you for an update, then maybe you have to reboot, then open the steam launcher, then maybe that also want some updates, then fire up the game, then you have to clear your surrounding environment to make room for the cable tether and make sure you don't trip on it, then put on the Index, then finally you can play. To most people that wohle ritual gets annoying and puts off the casual gamers who want a quick gaming session every now and then without dealing with any of that crap. The Quest is literally just put on and go since it's just like a console, which is also more popular for gaming than PCs for the convenience and the lack of friction.
        wayoutthere 5y ago
        That’s actually not my problem with it; my big problem with it is that the whole thing gives me a headache after about 15 minutes. And you can’t use your phone, have something on in the background, etc. Also basically every game was way easier to play outside VR. In my mind it’s a novelty you will be far more productive without.
seniortaco 5y ago
And perhaps as ubiquitous as Google Glass.
- danielbln 5y ago
  A glorified heads-up display, neither AR nor VR, and well before its time.
throwawayay02 5y ago
Consumers do not want to wear glasses.
- NoahRoseWood 5y ago
  I think they will wear them anyways
  - tazjin 5y ago
    This comment sums up the state of consumer tech so well. "Consumers don't want it, but they will use it anyways, because Apple/whoever said so"
    - throwaway473825 5y ago
      Not necessarily. Apple tried to push small phones (for various reasons). People refused, and Apple had to cave.

Melkman 5y ago

As much as I like VR I have to agree it will stay a niche product. The need to wear something on your head is a major hurdle. Like 3D TV's that have mostly disappeared. Also when you are in a VR environment you want to interact with it. You need free physical space to do that which is an other hurdle. There are more niches than gaming only though. Like education and product design and demonstration.

citizenpaul 5y ago
The main problem with 3D tv was the content. 3D really only works with bad movies like resident evil. You are not going to have need or want 3d in a movie that is an oscar contender. (Avatar as the single exception)
- Melkman 5y ago
  Ehh, the content is the problem because there is a lack of bad content ? There's a heap of 3D content and growing. Like last years Marvell movies, James Bond, Dune. And movie theaters still show those in 3D. Which works because people go to a movie theater for the experience and donning 3D glasses is a minor annoyance with that mindset. Most people don't go to the movies very often. However people wanting to view a quick movie at home don't want that annoyance. It's a bit the same with VR I think. When you go to an arcade or a friends house the space is already available and you accept being isolated because it's expected. Going for a quick VR session at home is an anti social hassle (unless you got a dedicated VR room or live alone).
  - citizenpaul 5y ago
    I'm just saying that things flying out of the screen rarely add value to the movie. I had 3d tv and my only shows for it were some documentaries, Avatar, Paddington bear, and 3d adventure of tintin. 2 kids movies 1 animated movie some short but interesting documentaries. (horror movies runner up (mostly resident evil lol) Not exactly market crushing content.
- alex504 5y ago

mettamage 5y ago

Note: it already has a health niche. Now that I think about it, one could create a startup in that space. The health niche will be expanding. I'd argue that Apple is excellently positioned for VR.

alexb_ 5y ago

The current attitude towards VR, and the "metaverse" in general, has got to be the second most delusional thing I have ever seen - due in no small part to the close integration with NFTs, the first most delusional obsession I've seen. It's complete and utter vaporware, with absolutely nothing behind it. I have done lots and lots of reading about the metaverse, what it promises, what it wants, and I still can't find a place where substituting the word "metaverse" with "cyberspace" doesn't create the same sentence. But everyone is afraid of missing out on the "next evolution of the internet" that all rational thought has gone out of the window. VR is not the future of anything besides the mentioned gaming niche.

parkingrift 5y ago
VR is the future of porn. I’m not convinced it’s the future of anything else. VR gaming sucks.
- whitepaint 5y ago
  > VR gaming sucks. Someone who spends 1-2 hours a day using Oculus, I wholeheartedly disagree.
  - parkingrift 5y ago
    To each their own. The only game I ever had fun playing was beat saber. Everything else required way too much room.
    - scsilver 5y ago
      Google Earth and msfs are pretty fun.
- alexb_ 5y ago
  VR gaming has potential that is not realized due to people sticking with game formats they know work. Innovative game design is going to be needed, but once it's here it will definitely have something else. And also yeah, VR porn. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Aix8NuU8pE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Aix8NuU8pE is relevant LOL.